What do we know about COVID-19 risk factors?

Table of Contents

1 Smoking, pre-existing pulmonary disease

1.0.0.1 Highlights

1.0.0.2 Articles

Date Authors Title LOE(?) & Sample Matches
2020 Gralinski et al Return of the Coronavirus: 2019-nCoV
Viruses
IV. Prevalence Study

The novel CoV (2019-nCoV) was isolated from a single patient and subsequently verified in 16 additional patients .
For the MERS-CoV outbreak, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and/or other chronic illnesses have been present in the majority of deaths and correspond to findings in animal models .
2020 Liu et al Analysis of factors associated with disease outcomes in hospitalized patients with 2019 novel coronavirus disease
Chin Med J (Engl)
IV. Prevalence Study

In the present study, 78 patients with COVID-19 associated pneumonia included 39 males and 39 females.
Personal data included sex, age, epidemiological history, history of smoking, and comorbidities [e.g., chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cancer, hypertension and/or diabetes].
2020 Schwartz et al Potential Maternal and Infant Outcomes from (Wuhan) Coronavirus 2019-nCoV Infecting Pregnant Women: Lessons from SARS, MERS, and Other Human Coronavirus Infections
Viruses
IV. Prevalence Study

A case-control study to determine the effects of SARS on pregnancy compared 10 pregnant and 40 non-pregnant women with the infection at the Princess Margaret Hospital in Hong Kong .
Most fatalities have been associated with pre-existing medical conditions like chronic lung disease, diabetes, and renal failure, as well as weakened immune systems , making such individuals high risk.
2020 Ralph et al 2019-nCoV (Wuhan virus), a novel Coronavirus: Human-to-human transmission, travel-related cases, and vaccine readiness
Journal of Infection in Developing Countries
IV. Prevalence Study

On 8 January 2020, it was reported that a novel coronavirus had been sequenced from one patient and subsequently identified in some of the other patients with pneumonia , later reported as 15 of the 59 patients .
Severe and fatal disease is strongly linked to underlying comorbidities including diabetes mellitus, hypertension, obesity, and chronic cardiac, pulmonary, or renal disease .
2020-02-02 Alavi-Moghaddam et al A Novel Coronavirus Outbreak from Wuhan City in China, Rapid Need for Emergency Departments Preparedness and Response; a Letter to Editor
Arch Acad Emerg Med
IV. Prevalence Study Patients with pre-existing medical comorbidities develop a more severe disease and have higher mortality rates compared to patients who do not have any comorbidity.
2020-02-05 He et al Integrative Bioinformatics Analysis Provides Insight into the Molecular Mechanisms of 2019-nCoV
medrxiv
IV. Other Moreover, based on the expression of ACE2 in smoking individuals, we inferred that long-term smoking might be a risk factor for 2019-nCoV.
2020-02-20 Deng et al Characteristics of and Public Health Responses to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Outbreak in China
J Clin Med
IV. Prevalence Study The major comorbidities of the fatality cases include hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, cerebral infarction, and chronic bronchitis.

A total of 26 cases with fatalities were used to disclose the dangerous comorbidities, showing that the major comorbidities are hypertension (53.8%), diabetes (42.3%), coronary heart disease (19.2%), cerebral infarction (15.4%), chronic bronchitis (19.2%) and Parkinson's disease (7.7%) (Figure 2 ).
2020-02-23 Hu et al Clinical Characteristics of 24 Asymptomatic Infections with COVID-19 Screened among Close Contacts in Nanjing, China
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

According to the report on "Diamond Princess", among the 1,723 tested travelers, 189 asymptomatic individuals were positive for the COVID-19 virus as of 17 February 2020 10 , which indicated that a large number of asymptomatic carriers and mild patients remain undiscovered in the community.
History of smoking and coexisting disorders was also collected.
2020-02-23 Feng et al Early Prediction of Disease Progression in 2019 Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Patients Outside Wuhan with CT and Clinical Characteristics
medrxiv
III-2. Retrospective Cohort

Results: A total of 141 patients with moderate NCP were included, of which 15 (10.6%) patients developed severe NCP during hospitalization and assigned to the progressive group.
Patients who progressed to severe NCP were more likely to have underlying hypertension (P = 0.004), but did not otherwise have significant differences in other co-morbidities including diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease and chronic hepatitis B infection.
2020-02-27 Zhang et al Clinical characteristics of 140 patients infected by SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan, China
Allergy
IV. Prevalence Study

Clinical characteristics of 140 patients infected by SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan, China
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, 1.4%) and current smokers (1.4%) were rare.
2020-02-29 Huang et al Clinical characteristics of 36 non-survivors with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China
medrxiv
IV. Other Four (11.11%) patients have smoking history.
2020-03-04 Memish et al Middle East respiratory syndrome
The Lancet
II. Randomized Controlled Trial

A retrospective study of 136 patients with MERS found that macrolide therapy resulted in no reduction in mortality or faster MERS-CoV RNA clearance compared with those who were not treated with macrolides.
11, 12 Host factors associated with mortality in this outbreak were older age (>60 years), smoking history, pre-existing pneumonia, abnormal renal function, and comorbidity.

These factors include male sex, comorbid pre-existing illnesses (such as obesity, diabetes mellitus, cancer, chronic heart, lung, and kidney disease, and immunocompromised states), low serum albumin, thrombocytopenia, lymphopenia, concomitant infections, and positive plasma MERS-CoV RNA.
2020-03-05 Spiteri et al First cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the WHO European Region, 24 January to 21 February 2020
Euro Surveill
IV. Prevalence Study Data on pre-existing conditions were reported for seven cases; five had no pre-existing conditions while one was reported to be obese and one had pre-existing cardiac disease.
2020-03-06 Riou et al Adjusted age-specific case fatality ratio during the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei, China, January and February 2020
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

The model estimates that a total of 82,300 individuals (95%CrI: 73,000-91,800) were infected in Hubei between 1 January and 11 February 2020.
There is no indication of pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in humans .
2020-03-07 Lupia et al 2019-novel coronavirus outbreak: A new challenge
Journal of Global Antimicrobial Resistance
III-3. Time Series Analysis

in up to 12% occurred an increase in troponin I count, and five patients have complained an acute cardiac injury: this finding requires further study to assess the heart tropism of 2019-nCoV and cardiovascular risk of infected patients during acute illness.
However, there is a low rate of associated pre-existing respiratory comorbidities.

Moreover, interstitial lung diseases, history of smoking, bronchiectasis or asthma were underreported [1, .
2020-03-08 Rao et al Exploring diseases/traits and blood proteins causally related to expression of ACE2, the putative receptor of 2019-nCov: A Mendelian Randomization analysis
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

recently carried out a nationwide analysis of 1,590 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and suggested that cancer patients might have a higher infection risk than those without 39 .
Other diseases/traits having nominal significant associations with increased ACE2 included inflammatory bowel disease, (ER+) breast and lung cancers, asthma, smoking and elevated ALT, among others.
2020-03-11 Zhou et al Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study
The Lancet
III-2. Retrospective Cohort

Before Jan 11, 2020, SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection results were not available in the electronic medical records, from which data for this study were obtained retrospectively; therefore, this study includes 29 of the 41 patients originally reported on.
21 Risk factors of cardiac events after pneumonia include older age, pre-existing cardiovascular diseases, and greater severity of pneumonia at presentation.
2020-03-13 Xi et al Virus strain of a mild COVID-19 patient in Hangzhou representing a new trend in SARS-CoV-2 evolution related to Furin cleavage site
medrxiv
IV. Other The top three co-existing conditions were hypertension (15.99%), diabetes (7.23%) and chronic liver disease (3.93%).
2020-03-16 Lippi et al Active smoking is not associated with severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
European Journal of Internal Medicine
I. Systematic Review

Therefore, 5 studies could finally be included in our meta-analysis, totaling 1399 COVID-19 patients, 288 of whom (20.6%) with severe disease .
Active smoking is not associated with severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
2020-03-16 Zhao et al Relationship between the ABO Blood Group and the COVID-19 Susceptibility
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

DESIGN The study was conducted by comparing the blood group distribution in 2,173 patients with COVID-19 confirmed by SARS-CoV-2 test from three hospitals in Wuhan and Shenzhen, China with that in normal people from the corresponding regions.
Recent clinical observation suggests that patient age, male sex and certain chronic medical conditions (e.g., cardiovascular disease, diabetes, COPD) seem to represent a risk for the infection of SARS-Cov-2 and higher disease severity 1 .
2020-03-17 Adhikari et al Epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, prevention and control of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during the early outbreak period: a scoping review
Infect Dis Poverty
III-2. Cross Sectional Control

In China, 11 791 cases were confirmed and 17 988 cases were suspected in 34 provinces as of 24:00, 31 January 2020 (Fig.
Cases resulting in death were primarily middle-aged and elderly patients with pre-existing diseases (tumor surgery, cirrhosis, hypertension, coronary heart disease, diabetes, and Parkinson's disease) .
2020-03-20 Nickbakhsh et al Epidemiology of seasonal coronaviruses: Establishing the context for COVID-19 emergence
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

Of 74,241 patient episodes of respiratory illness with sCoV subtyping, 8,912 patients experienced multiple episodes over the study timeframe.
We note however our analyses do not control for potential confounding factors such as smoking or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).
2020-03-23 Luo et al Prognostic value of C-reactive protein in patients with COVID-19
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

Hence, 298 patients were finally enrolled in this study, including 141 cases of ordinary illness and 157 cases of severe or critical illness on admission.
Epidemiological information such as gender, age, chronic diseases, history of smoking and drinking, were reviewed and assessed, as well as days from illness onset to hospitalization and disease severity on admission.
2020-03-23 Leung et al ACE-2 Expression in the Small Airway Epithelia of Smokers and COPD Patients: Implications for COVID-19
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

As of March 13, 2020, there have been 144,064 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide with 5,397 deaths worldwide .
Because individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at increased risk of severe COVID19, we determined whether ACE2 expression in the lower airways was related to COPD and cigarette smoking.
2020-03-23 Luo et al Characteristics of patients with COVID-19 during epidemic ongoing outbreak in Wuhan, China
medrxiv
IV. Other Besides, coronary heart disease, chronic pulmonary disease, cirrhosis, anemia, and chronic kidney disease appeared in 36 (8.9%), 28 (6.9%), 25 (6.2%), 15 (3.7%), and 7 (1.7%) patients, respectively.
2020-03-24 Emami et al Prevalence of Underlying Diseases in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Arch Acad Emerg Med
I. Systematic Review

RESULTS: The data of 76993 patients presented in 10 articles were included in this study.
In summary, the results of the current study have shown that in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, smoking, and diabetes are the most prevalent co-existing disorders.

However, factors such as amount of smoking, the duration of smoking, and the duration of smoking cessation also play a role.

Although the results of the current analysis indicate that smoking can be an underlying factor that makes people susceptible to COVID-19 complications, in some studies, especially COVID-19 related studies, no strong evidence has been found regarding the correlation of COPD and smoking with being infected with this new virus.
2020-03-24 Hill et al Commentary: COVID-19 in Patients with Diabetes
Metabolism
IV. Other For example, a large observational report 2 including 1099 patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection indicated that in 173 with severe disease there existed the comorbidities of hypertension (23·7%), diabetes mellitus (16·2%), coronary heart diseases (5·8%), and cerebrovascular disease (2·3%).
2020-03-25 Ren et al EPIDEMIOLOGICAL AND CLINICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF HEART TRANSPLANT RECIPIENTS DURING THE 2019 CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN WUHAN, CHINA: A DESCRIPTIVE SURVEY REPORT
The Journal of Heart and Lung Transplantation
IV. Prevalence Study

There are 63 men and 24 women, average age is 51±12 years, 80 (92.0%) of them lived together with relatives, the number of relatives ranged from 1 to 8.
For the MERS-CoV outbreak, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and/or other chronic illnesses were present in the majority of deaths and correspond to findings in animal models.
2020-03-26 Zhang et al Comorbid Diabetes Mellitus was Associated with Poorer Prognosis in Patients with COVID-19: A Retrospective Cohort Study
medrxiv
III-2. Retrospective Cohort

A total of 258 consecutive laboratory-confirmed patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection were included and analyzed in the study, and 24% of them had diabetes.
Chronic pulmonary disease included chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), allergic airway disease or the use of supplemental oxygen at home.
2020-03-26 Zhang et al COVID-19 infection induces readily detectable morphological and inflammation-related phenotypic changes in peripheral blood monocytes, the severity of which correlate with patient outcome
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

Of the 28 COVID-19 patients included in this study, three were admitted to the ICU.
Mortality increases with age and in patients with underlying co-morbidities, such as hypertension, diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, chronic lung disease, and cancer.
2020-03-27 Gu et al History of Coronary Heart Disease Increases the Mortality Rate of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Patients: A Nested Case-Control Study Based on Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases in Mainland China
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

A total of 321 publicly reported confirmed cases (146 cases and 175 controls) with trackable time-to-death information and history of comorbidities were collected between December 18th, 2019 and March 8th, 2020.
The total number of pre-existing comorbidities was defined as the total number of pre-existing among hypertension, coronary heart disease (CHD), chronic bronchitis, lung disease and diabetes, ranging from zero to four.

Studies have indicated that severe cases tend to be older in age and are more likely to have had pre-existing medical conditions, including but not limited to hypertension , diabetes , cardiovascular diseases , cerebrovascular diseases , chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) , cancer , and digestive diseases , in comparison to non-severe cases [ .

There is limited evidence on the mortality risk effect of pre-existing comorbidity for clinical disease (coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]), which has important implications for early treatment.
2020-03-27 Pinto et al ACE2 Expression is Increased in the Lungs of Patients with Comorbidities Associated with Severe COVID-19
medrxiv
IV. Other Seven lung transcriptome studies of patients with either Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) or Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH), as well as smoking volunteers, compared to individuals who were non-smoking volunteers, were downloaded and used in our meta-analysis (Table S1 ).

Specifically, over 8,000 abstracts containing the terms "pulmonary hypertension," "chronic obstructive pulmonary disease," "hypertension," "smoking," "pulmonary fibrosis," or "asthma" in the title or abstract were selected (Figure 1a ).
2020-03-27 Alqahtani et al Prevalence, Severity and Mortality associated with COPD and Smoking in patients with COVID-19: A Rapid Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
medrxiv
I. Systematic Review

A total of 15 studies met the inclusion criteria, which included a total of 2473 confirmed COVID-19 patients.
Smoking exposure including (current and ex-smokers) was reported in eight studies, with 221 confirmed COVID-19 cases.

We showed that COPD and smoking in COVID-19 is associated with greater disease severity and higher mortality.
2020-03-30 Li et al Electrophysiology in the time of coronavirus: coping with the great wave.
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study 18 Co-existing diabetes, hypertension or heart failure are common.
2020-03-30 Zeng et al Risk assessment of progression to severe conditions for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia: a single-center retrospective study
medrxiv
IV. Other Age, body mass index (BMI), fever symptom on admission, co-existing hypertension or diabetes are associated with severe progression.

The independent predisposition factors of progression include old age, high BMI, fever, and co-existing hypertension or diabetes diseases.
2020-03-30 Chen et al Effects of hypertension, diabetes and coronary heart disease on COVID-19 diseases severity: a systematic review and meta-analysis
medrxiv
I. Systematic Review

Findings: Of 182 articles found following our initial search, we assessed 34 full-text articles, of which 9 articles with 1936 COVID-19 patients met all selection criteria for our meta-analysis.
In the included studies, the comorbidities of COVID-19 mainly included hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, chronic liver disease, cancer/malignant tumor, and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

3 The major comorbidities of the fatality cases include hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, cerebral infarction, and chronic bronchitis.
2020-03-31 Smith et al Cigarette smoke triggers the expansion of a subpopulation of respiratory epithelial cells that express the SARS-CoV-2 receptor ACE2
biorxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

Viral RNA has been detected in stool samples from patients with COVID-19 19 , and gastrointestinal symptoms have been reported in a subset of affected individuals 12 , suggesting a potential alternate route for SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
Chronic smokers may exhibit a number of co-morbidities, including emphysema, atherosclerosis, and decreased immune function 86 , that are also likely to affect COVID-19 progression.
2020-03-31 Wu et al SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 and inherited arrhythmia syndromes
Heart Rhythm
IV. Prevalence Study

In the afore-mentioned study 93 of 138 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, arrhythmia (not further specified) was reported in 17% 6 of total patients and in 16 of 36 patients admitted to the ICU.
1 This indicates that patients with 81 pre-existing cardiovascular disease may have a worse prognosis than others although age could 82 be one of the confounders.
2020-07-31 Lin et al Asymptomatic novel coronavirus pneumonia patient outside Wuhan: The value of CT images in the course of the disease
Clinical Imaging
IV. Other The patient was a retired driver in good health, without diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease and had no history of smoking.

2 Co-infections (determine whether co-existing respiratory/viral infections make the virus more transmissible or virulent) and other co-morbidities

2.0.0.1 Highlights

2.0.0.2 Articles

Date Authors Title LOE(?) & Sample Matches
2020 WANG et al Analysis of 8 274 cases of new coronavirus nucleic acid detection and co-infection in Wuhan
Chinese Journal of Laboratory Medicine
IV. Other Co-infections should be pay close attention in COVID-19 patients.
2020 Jung et al Epidemiological Identification of A Novel Pathogen in Real Time: Analysis of the Atypical Pneumonia Outbreak in Wuhan, China, 2019-2020
J Clin Med
IV. Prevalence Study The probability that the outbreak is due to an unknown pathogen (Disease X) increases as more information becomes available, for two reasons: (i) the current outbreak can be seen to exhibit characteristics that are not similar to those observed in previous outbreaks, and; (ii) previously observed pathogens are ruled out by laboratory test results.
2020-01-24 Guo et al Host and infectivity prediction of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus using deep learning algorithm
biorxiv
IV. Other Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses which usually circulate among animals which will cause fatal diseases, once they mutate and evolve to be able to infect human.
2020-02-02 Alavi-Moghaddam et al A Novel Coronavirus Outbreak from Wuhan City in China, Rapid Need for Emergency Departments Preparedness and Response; a Letter to Editor
Arch Acad Emerg Med
IV. Prevalence Study Patients with pre-existing medical comorbidities develop a more severe disease and have higher mortality rates compared to patients who do not have any comorbidity.
2020-02-06 Jin et al A rapid advice guideline for the diagnosis and treatment of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infected pneumonia (standard version)
Mil Med Res
II. Randomized Controlled Trial The elderly and those with underlying diseases show more serious conditions after infection, and children and infants also get infected by the 2019-nCoV.
2020-02-10 Arabi et al Critical care management of adults with community-acquired severe respiratory viral infection
Intensive Care Med
II. Randomized Controlled Trial

The importance of timing of oseltamivir treatment has been demonstrated in an observational study of 1950 patients admitted to ICUs with influenza A(H1N1) pdm09, which showed a trend toward improved survival for those treated earliest .
Co-infections with bacterial pathogens occur often with RVI.
2020-02-17 Ai et al Optimizing diagnostic strategy for novel coronavirus pneumonia, a multi-center study in Eastern China
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

Twenty patients were finally laboratoryconfirmed with NCP, among whom 14 patients were positive for the first admission SARS-COV-2 RT-PCR, 3 patients turned to positive in the second test after the first negative result.
Co-infection of other pathogens with SARS-CoV-2 exists and should be acknowledged.

Co-infection of other pathogens with SARS-COV-2 exists and should be acknowledged.
2020-02-22 Zhang et al The continuous evolution and dissemination of 2019 novel human coronavirus
Journal of Infection
IV. Other Nevertheless, we cannot rule out if the 2019-nCoV continue evolving to become more transmissible and virulent in humans in the near future.
2020-02-26 Liao et al The landscape of lung bronchoalveolar immune cells in COVID-19 revealed by single-cell RNA sequencing
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

At the individual levels, we also found the higher T cell clonality was consistently remained in the 3 mild patients as compared to the 3 severe patients ( Figure 4D ), supporting that highly expanded CD8 + T cell participated in resolving the SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Generally, the COVID-19 is less severe and less fatal than the SARS, however, some patients, especially aged populations with co-morbidities are prone to develop more severe symptoms and require emergent medical interventions .
2020-02-26 Zhang et al Genomic variations of SARS-CoV-2 suggest multiple outbreak sources of transmission
medrxiv
IV. Other Furthermore, by analyzing three genomic sites that distinguish Type I and Type II strains, we found that synonymous changes at two of the three sites confer higher protein translational efficiencies in Type II strains than in Type I strains, which might explain why Type II strains are predominant, implying that Type II is more contagious (transmissible) than Type I.
2020-02-27 Guan et al Comorbidity and its impact on 1,590 patients with COVID-19 in China: A Nationwide Analysis
medrxiv
III-2. Retrospective Cohort

647 (40.7%) patients were managed inside Hubei province, and 1,334 (83.9%) patients had a contact history of Wuhan city.
Therefore, patients with co-existing comorbidities are more likely to have poorer baseline well-being.
2020-02-27 Peng et al Outbreak of a new coronavirus: what anaesthetists should know
British Journal of Anaesthesia
IV. Prevalence Study

The median age of infected individuals is between 49 and 56 yr. 1 13 Children are rarely diagnosed with 2019-nCoV, a phenomenon that has not yet been explained.
14 People with co-morbidities, such as diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease, appear to be at higher risk for death.
2020-02-28 Fisher et al Q&A: The novel coronavirus outbreak causing COVID-19
BMC Med
IV. Other It is likely that future serological studies will show much asymptomatic disease in children.
2020-03-03 Xing et al Precautions are Needed for COVID-19 Patients with Coinfection of Common Respiratory Pathogens
medrxiv
IV. Other However, we were unable to exclude the possibility that coinfection with other respiratory pathogens may make the patients more susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection.
2020-03-05 Spiteri et al First cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the WHO European Region, 24 January to 21 February 2020
Euro Surveill
IV. Prevalence Study Data on pre-existing conditions were reported for seven cases; five had no pre-existing conditions while one was reported to be obese and one had pre-existing cardiac disease.
2020-03-07 Lupia et al 2019-novel coronavirus outbreak: A new challenge
Journal of Global Antimicrobial Resistance
III-3. Time Series Analysis

in up to 12% occurred an increase in troponin I count, and five patients have complained an acute cardiac injury: this finding requires further study to assess the heart tropism of 2019-nCoV and cardiovascular risk of infected patients during acute illness.
However, there is a low rate of associated pre-existing respiratory comorbidities.
2020-03-08 Cheng et al An outbreak of COVID ‐19 caused by a new coronavirus: what we know so far
Medical Journal of Australia
IV. Prevalence Study The cases reported to date suggest that most are older adults; it is currently unclear whether comorbidities reflect the age group affected or whether they are risk factors for severe disease.4, 5 Early studies using data before the institution of public health interventions in China suggest that SARS‐CoV‐2 is as transmissible as SARS coronavirus and probably more transmissible than influenza viruses.6, 7 The timing of infectiousness relative to symptom onset is a particularly important parameter with implications for public health control.
2020-03-10 Lauer et al The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application
Ann Intern Med
III-3. Time Series Analysis

We collected data from 181 cases with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection detected outside Hubei province before 24 February 2020 ( Table 1) .
The incubation period for these severe cases may differ from that of less severe or subclinical infections and is not typically an applicable measure for those with asymptomatic infections.
2020-03-10 Hong et al Clinical characteristics of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in newborns, infants and children
Pediatrics & Neonatology
IV. Other From the report, it is apparent that children remain susceptible to the infection, and severe infection could occur.
2020-03-13 Xi et al Virus strain of a mild COVID-19 patient in Hangzhou representing a new trend in SARS-CoV-2 evolution related to Furin cleavage site
medrxiv
IV. Other The top three co-existing conditions were hypertension (15.99%), diabetes (7.23%) and chronic liver disease (3.93%).
2020-03-13 Lei et al Clinical features of imported cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in Tibetan patients in the Plateau area
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

A total of 67 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 were included in this study.
In general, older persons appear more susceptible to COVID-19 and more likely to suffer severe disease, which may be due to underlying health issues and comorbidities 8 .
2020-03-14 Lopez-Rincon et al Accurate Identification of SARS-CoV-2 from Viral Genome Sequences using Deep Learning
biorxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

Next, 115 we removed all the repeated sequences, obtaining a total of 384 unique sequences, with 45 samples belonging to SARS-CoV-2.
In addition, SARS-CoV-2 may present 25 with other respiratory infections, which make it even more difficult to identify .
2020-03-16 Jain et al Systematic review and meta-analysis of predictive symptoms and comorbidities for severe COVID-19 infection
medrxiv
I. Systematic Review

Results Of the 2259 studies identified, 42 were selected after title and abstract analysis, and 7 studies (including 1813 COVID−19 patients) were chosen for inclusion.
It has been noted that elderly patients with pre-existing comorbidities are more vulnerable to more severe disease.

When looking at ICU-admitted patients, who represent the more severe end of the spectrum of clinical severity, the difference in effect sizes for COPD and the other included comorbidities was large, suggesting COPD patients are particularly vulnerable to critically severe disease.
2020-03-16 Liu et al Active or latent tuberculosis increases susceptibility to COVID-19 and disease severity
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

Among the 36 confirmed COVID-19 patients from Shenyang, Liaoning province, China, included in this study, the most common symptoms at presentation were cough (61.11%), dyspnea (33.33%), .
Statistics from other reported studies, however, suggest that the frequency of these co-morbidities is much lower than that of MTB infection in this study (COPD: 1% of 1099 COVID-19 cases 12 , chronic respiratory disease: 2.4% of 72,314 COVID-19 cases 13 ).
2020-03-16 Zhao et al Relationship between the ABO Blood Group and the COVID-19 Susceptibility
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

DESIGN The study was conducted by comparing the blood group distribution in 2,173 patients with COVID-19 confirmed by SARS-CoV-2 test from three hospitals in Wuhan and Shenzhen, China with that in normal people from the corresponding regions.
Recent clinical observation suggests that patient age, male sex and certain chronic medical conditions (e.g., cardiovascular disease, diabetes, COPD) seem to represent a risk for the infection of SARS-Cov-2 and higher disease severity 1 .
2020-03-19 Lebwohl et al Should biologics for psoriasis be interrupted in the era of COVID-19?
Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology
IV. Other We do not know if biologic therapies render patients more susceptible to coronavirus, but we know that in a pre-coronavirus era, respiratory infection rates were comparable to placebo.
2020-03-19 Driggin et al Cardiovascular Considerations for Patients, Health Care Workers, and Health Systems During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic
Journal of the American College of Cardiology
IV. Prevalence Study

A meta-analysis of six studies inclusive of 1,527 patients with COVID-19 examined the prevalence of CVD and reported the prevalence of hypertension, cardiac and cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes to be 17.1%, 16.4%, and 9.7%, respectively .
Notably while rates of concomitant infections with other viruses and bacterial superinfections in preliminary data appear low , patients with the most severe clinical presentations are likely still at risk for co-infections, and unsurprisingly, worse outcomes have been noted in such cases .
2020-03-20 Rossman et al A framework for identifying regional outbreak and spread of COVID-19 from one-minute population-wide surveys
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

To this date, March 21st, 18pm, there have been 54,059 responses, including 50,572 (93.55%) adults and 3,488 (6.45%) children.
We therefore hypothesize that these symptoms may reflect other respiratory infections which are prevalent in Israel during this period (such as infections caused by an influenza virus), as many of these diseases share common symptoms 9 .

Several other symptoms which are not common in patients with COVID-19 infection but are common in other infectious diseases were also included to discern possible COVID-19 patients..
2020-03-20 Zhang et al The first-in-class peptide binder to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein
biorxiv
IV. Other Aged patients with pre-existing medical conditions are at most 58 risk with a mortality rate ~1.5% or even higher in some regions.
2020-03-20 Guzzi et al Intensive Care Unit Resource Planning During COVID-19 Emergency at the Regional Level: the Italian case.
medrxiv
IV. Other In some cases, 28 COVID-19 causes severe pneumonia, which requires respiratory support and 29 can lead to death, especially in the presence of co-morbidities such as diabetes 30 or hypertension .
2020-03-21 Sun et al COVID-19: Epidemiology, Evolution, and Cross-Disciplinary Perspectives
Trends in Molecular Medicine
IV. Prevalence Study

Asymptomatic infection was also documented in Germany: two asymptomatic patients' throat samples were tested positive by reverse transcription (RT)-PCR and by virus isolation, while both patients remained well and afebrile for 7 days .
COVID-19 presents with asymptomatic infections, with potential to propagate and perpetuate this epidemic.
2020-03-24 Felice Francesca et al The impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on head and neck cancer patients’ care
Radiotherapy and Oncology
IV. Prevalence Study On the other hand, these relevant co-morbidities are linked to a higher risk of death in case of COVID-19 infection .
2020-03-24 Emami et al Prevalence of Underlying Diseases in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Arch Acad Emerg Med
I. Systematic Review

RESULTS: The data of 76993 patients presented in 10 articles were included in this study.
These ambiguities make the condition more serious for vulnerable members of the community, which include individuals with immune problems, co-existing comorbidity and elderly people.
2020-03-24 Miao et al A comparative multi-centre study on the clinical and imaging features of comfirmed and uncomfirmed patients with COVID-19
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

Results This study enrolled 163 patients with 62 confirmed cases and 101 unconfirmed cases.
Therefore, clinical symptoms alone were difficult to distinguish from winter respiratory diseases.
2020-03-25 Bansal et al Cardiovascular disease and COVID-19
Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome: Clinical Research & Reviews
IV. Prevalence Study

A study describing clinical profile and outcomes in 138 Chinese patients with COVID-19 reported 16.7% incidence of arrhythmia .
The patients with pre-existing CV risk factors and CVD appear to have heightened vulnerability to develop COVID-19 and tend to have more severe disease with worse clinical outcomes .
2020-03-26 Koff et al Symptomatology during seasonal coronavirus infections in children is associated with viral and bacterial co-detection
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

The contribution to the spread of the disease by these children 82 currently remains unknown, but is potentially substantial given significant viral shedding also 83 occurs in asymptomatic children , and because they keep mixing with family members and 84 other individuals in the community .
Furthermore, in HCoV-infected children, other respiratory viruses are often co-detected, and 10 these other viruses may contribute to symptomatic illness .
2020-03-26 Zhang et al A Multicentre Study of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease Outcomes of Cancer Patients in Wuhan, China
medrxiv
III-2. Retrospective Cohort

Among those 23 patients, 9 cases were receiving chemotherapy-based comprehensive therapies, 7 cases were during perioperative period, 3 cases were receiving supportive treatment, 2 cases were receiving radiotherapy combined with targeted therapy or with endocrinotherapy, and the rest 2 patients were receiving endocrinotherapy or immunotherapy.
Forty-three (64.2%) patients had other concurrent chronic diseases, and the proportion of severe patients had co-morbidities was higher than patients with mild disease (P=0.004).
2020-03-30 An et al Clinical characteristics of the recovered COVID-19 patients with re-detectable positive RNA test
medrxiv
IV. Other Generally, the COVID-19 is less severe and less fatal than the SARS, however, some patients, especially those who are elderly with co-morbidities are prone to develop more severe symptoms and require emergent medical interventions .
2020-03-30 Zhu et al Children are unlikely to have been the primary source of household SARS-CoV-2 infections
medrxiv
IV. Other 16 Alternatively, these observations may reflect the fact that the paediatric immune system is more adept than that of adults at dealing with infections for which there is no pre-existing immunity.
2020-03-30 Zeng et al Risk assessment of progression to severe conditions for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia: a single-center retrospective study
medrxiv
IV. Other Disease history is not significantly enriched in the severe group, but co-existing hypertension or diabetes do have such significance.

The independent predisposition factors of progression include old age, high BMI, fever, and co-existing hypertension or diabetes diseases.
2020-03-30 Li et al Electrophysiology in the time of coronavirus: coping with the great wave.
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study 18 Co-existing diabetes, hypertension or heart failure are common.
2020-03-30 Sarkar et al A Machine Learning Model Reveals Older Age and Delayed Hospitalization as Predictors of Mortality in Patients with COVID-19
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

Missing values were removed for all the variables to obtain a dataset of 433 individuals.
Epidemiological evidence suggests that older age and the associated co-morbidities such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes put patients at higher risk of mortality .
2020-03-31 Tetro et al Is COVID-19 receiving ADE from other coronaviruses?
Microbes and Infection
IV. Other Severe cases tend to occur in men and many suffer from one or more co-morbidities such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease as well as diabetes.
2020-03-31 Fausto et al Creating a Palliative Care Inpatient Response Plan for COVID19 – The UW Medicine Experience
Journal of Pain and Symptom Management
IV. Other Significant numbers of patients are being admitted to the hospital with severe illness, often in the setting of advanced age and underlying co-morbidities.
2020-03-31 Li et al The epidemic of 2019-novel-coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia and insights for emerging infectious diseases in the future
Microbes and Infection
IV. Prevalence Study

11 January 2020 41 patients have been diagnosed to have infection of the novel coronavirus, with 763 close contacts, 7 severe cases and the first death.
Infection outcomes vary from mild, self-limiting disease, to more severe manifestations and even death .
2020-07-31 Jansen et al A novel presentation of COVID-19 via community acquired infection
Visual Journal of Emergency Medicine
IV. Other The virus can cause severe respiratory tract infections in its host more often in the elderly, immunocompromised, or individuals with multiple medical comorbidities 3 .

3 Neonates and pregnant women

3.0.0.1 Highlights

3.0.0.2 Articles

Date Authors Title LOE(?) & Sample Matches
2020 Zhang et al Analysis of the pregnancy outcomes in pregnant women with COVID-19 in Hubei Province
Zhonghua Fu Chan Ke Za Zhi
IV. Other Ten cases of neonates delivered from pregnant women with COVID-19 were collected.

2019-nCoV infection has not been found in neonates deliverd from pregnant women with COVID-19.
2020 Schwartz et al Potential Maternal and Infant Outcomes from (Wuhan) Coronavirus 2019-nCoV Infecting Pregnant Women: Lessons from SARS, MERS, and Other Human Coronavirus Infections
Viruses
IV. Prevalence Study

A case-control study to determine the effects of SARS on pregnancy compared 10 pregnant and 40 non-pregnant women with the infection at the Princess Margaret Hospital in Hong Kong .
There were 3 deaths among the pregnant women with SARS (maternal mortality rate of 30%) and no deaths in the non-pregnant group of infected women (P = 0.006).

The clinical outcomes among pregnant women with SARS in Hong Kong were worse than those occurring in infected women who were not pregnant .
2020 Lai et al Asymptomatic carrier state, acute respiratory disease, and pneumonia due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2): Facts and myths
Journal of Microbiology, Immunology and Infection
IV. Prevalence Study

Regarding children with COVID-19, nine (0.9%) patients aged 0-14 years were found in only one study, 11 while 14 (0.35%) patients were aged ≤ 10 years in another study.
Adults represent the population with the highest infection rate; however, neonates, children, and elderly patients can also be infected by SARS-CoV-2.
2020-02-01 Zhu et al Clinical analysis of 10 neonates born to mothers with 2019-nCoV pneumonia
Translational Pediatrics
IV. Other Clinical analysis of 10 neonates born to mothers with 2019-nCoV pneumonia

A number of cases of neonates born to mothers with 2019-nCoV pneumonia have been recorded.
2020-02-25 yaqian et al Clinical and pathological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): a systematic review
medrxiv
I. Systematic Review

Results: 34 COVID-19-related articles were eligible for this systematic review;Four of the articles were related to pathology.
The reason was considered to be related to the special immune tolerance state of pregnant women during pregnancy and the low immune function of children and infants .

Through the summary analysis of the pneumonia, we found that COVID-19 had a general susceptibility, However, it should be noted that cases of infection in pregnant women, newborns, infants and children have been reported successively.
2020-02-28 Favre et al 2019-nCoV epidemic: what about pregnancies?
The Lancet
IV. Other 2, 3 12 pregnant women were infected with SARS-CoV during the 2002-03 pandemic.
2020-03-05 Liu et al Clinical manifestations and outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy
Journal of Infection
IV. Other We reported 13 pregnant COVID-19 patients in China, indicating pregnant women also susceptible to SARS-CoV-2.
2020-03-12 Lu et al Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and neonate: What neonatologist need to know
Journal of Medical Virology
IV. Other About 3 neonates and more than 230 children cases are reported.
2020-03-13 Chen et al Clinical characteristics and intrauterine vertical transmission potential of COVID-19 infection in nine pregnant women: a retrospective review of medical records
The Lancet
IV. Other Future investigations of these issues and follow-up studies of pregnant women with COVID-19 infection, as well as neonates, will be necessary to ascertain the safety and health of mothers and babies exposed to SARS-CoV-2.

The clinical characteristics of COVID-19 pneumonia in pregnant women were similar to those of non-pregnant adult patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

Interpretation The clinical characteristics of COVID-19 pneumonia in pregnant women were similar to those reported for non-pregnant adult patients who developed COVID-19 pneumonia.

Urgent questions that need to be addressed promptly include whether pregnant women with COVID-19 pneumonia will develop distinct symptoms from non-pregnant adults, whether pregnant women who have confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia are more likely to die of the infection or to undergo preterm labour, and whether COVID-19 could spread vertically and pose risks to the fetus and neonate.
2020-03-13 Qiao et al What are the risks of COVID-19 infection in pregnant women?
The Lancet
IV. Other Therefore, pregnant women and newborn babies should be considered key atrisk populations in strategies focusing on prevention and management of COVID19 infection.
2020-03-13 Singhal et al A Review of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19)
Indian J Pediatr
IV. Prevalence Study

The median age was 8 y 11 mo and in 28 children the infection was linked to a family member and 26 children had history of travel/residence to Hubei province in China.
Disease in neonates, infants and children has been also reported to be significantly milder than their adult counterparts.
2020-03-13 Li et al Maternal and neonatal outcomes of pregnant women with COVID-19 pneumonia: a case-control study
medrxiv
IV. Other Conclusion Severe maternal and neonatal complications were not observed in pregnant women with COVID-19 pneumonia who had vaginal delivery or caesarean section.
2020-03-16 Ye et al Environmental contamination of the SARS-CoV-2 in healthcare premises: An urgent call for protection for healthcare workers
medrxiv
IV. Other In addition, pregnant women and neonates are highly susceptible populations.
2020-03-18 Yu et al The clinical and epidemiological features and hints of 82 confirmed COVID-19 pediatric cases aged 0-16 in Wuhan, China
medrxiv
IV. Other 8 critically ill cases was found with 4 children and 4 infants.
2020-03-19 Lotfinejad et al Hand hygiene and the novel coronavirus pandemic: The role of healthcare workers
Journal of Hospital Infection
IV. Other As COVID-19 infection has been reported from close contact of neonates with confirmed cases, it is important to consider pregnant women and their newborn infants as at-risk populations while preventing and managing COVID-19 infection .

Although the impact of COVID- 19 is not yet clear on pregnant women, they might be at greater risk of acquiring the infection since pregnant women are more susceptible to respiratory viruses .
2020-03-21 Liu et al Clinical and CT imaging features of the COVID-19 pneumonia: Focus on pregnant women and children
Journal of Infection
IV. Other Our study revealed that the clinical symptoms of pregnant women were atypical in comparison with the non-pregnant adults.

16 , 17 In this present study, the clinical and chest CT findings of COVID-19 pneumonia were investigated for the pregnant women and children in comparison with non-pregnant adults from two centers.
2020-03-23 Panahi et al Risks of Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Pregnancy; a Narrative Review
Arch Acad Emerg Med
IV. Other There has been no report of vertical transmission in pregnancy, and it has been found that clinical symptoms of COVID-19 in pregnant women are not different from those of non-pregnant women.

Also, Mothers and their 2020 China Clinical analysis of 10 neonates born to mothers with 2019-nCoV pneumonia

in China on 9 pregnant mothers with COVID-19 found that none of the newborns had postpartum complications such as COVID-19 infection and prematurity .
2020-03-23 Dashraath et al Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic and Pregnancy
American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology
IV. Other Pregnant women and their fetuses represent a high-risk population during infectious disease outbreaks.
2020-03-24 Yu et al Clinical features and obstetric and neonatal outcomes of pregnant patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective, single-centre, descriptive study
The Lancet Infectious Diseases
IV. Other The outcomes of the pregnant women and neonates were good.

With intensive, active management, the outcomes of the pregnant women and neonates were good.

The outcomes of the pregnant women were good.

The number of pregnant women with COVID-19 is also increasing; there were already more than 30 pregnant patients with COVID-19 in China by Feb 8, 2020 .
2020-03-24 Luo et al Management of pregnant women infected with COVID-19
The Lancet Infectious Diseases
IV. Other However, understanding of SARS-CoV-2, especially the effect on pregnant women and neonates, is still insufficient.

All patients had caesarean section after consultation with a multidisciplinary team and the outcomes of the pregnant women and neonates were good.

Seven pregnant women with COVID-19 pneumonia were assessed and the onset symptoms were similar to those reported in non-pregnant adults with COVID-19.
2020-03-24 Chavez et al Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A primer for emergency physicians
The American Journal of Emergency Medicine
IV. Prevalence Study

60 One study of 204 patients with confirmed COVID-19 suggests 48.5% of patients have gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms.
47 Pregnant women and fetuses may be more vulnerable to COVID-19 infection compared to the general population.
2020-03-27 Nie et al Clinical features and the maternal and neonatal outcomes of pregnant women with coronavirus disease 2019
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

Three women were in the second trimester (17 weeks, 20 weeks, and 26 weeks), and the other 30 women were in the third trimester at the time of presentation.
However, there is currently no large series of pregnant women with confirmed Covid-19, so we believe that this study will be useful for guiding us in the management of pregnant women with Covid-19 and their newborns.

No pregnant women admitted to the ICU.

RESULTS Thirty-three pregnant women with Covid-19 and 28 newborns were identified.

Therefore, the obstetrical outcomes from pregnant women with SARS-CoV-2 infection appear better than that for pregnant women with SARS.

The clinical outcomes among pregnant women with SARS or MERS were worse than those occurring in non-pregnant women 6, 10 .
2020-03-27 Yue et al Anaesthesia and infection control in cesarean section of pregnant women with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
medrxiv
IV. Other No COVID-19 infection was reported in the neonates born to the mothers with confirmed COVID-19 infection and healthcare workers in these operations.
2020-03-27 Zhang et al Anaesthetic managment and clinical outcomes of parturients with COVID-19: a multicentre, retrospective, propensity score matched cohort study
medrxiv
III-2. Matched Case Control

A total of 1,588 patients undergoing cesarean delivery were retrospectively included in the study.
Besides, the delivery of infected parturients to designated hospitals was to ensure the safety of the pregnant women and their newborns, while preventing and controlling newborns' infection with SARS-Cov-2.
2020-03-28 Tan et al The cardiovascular burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with a focus on congenital heart disease
International Journal of Cardiology
IV. Other A review of pregnant women infected with COVID-19 revealed that pregnant women are not at increased risk of poor outcomes when compared to the general adult population , and there seems to be no evidence of vertical transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus from mother to baby during birth or during breastfeeding at present .
2020-03-29 Li et al Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): current status and future perspective
International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents
III-2. Retrospective Cohort

Analysis of the first 99 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV2 infection revealed that cytokine storm syndromes occurred in patients with severe COVID-19 and 17 (17%) had ARDS and, among them, 11 (11%) patients deteriorated within a short period of time and died of multiple organ failure .
In addition, pregnant women and newborns infected with SARS-CoV2 are also prone to develop severe pneumonia .
2020-03-30 Heydari et al Clinical and Paraclinical Characteristics of COVID-19 patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis
medrxiv
I. Systematic Review

Additionally, 13 studies obtained from manual search were included in the meta-analysis.
pregnant women) has been excluded.
2020-04-01 Al-Tawfiq et al Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and COVID-19 infection during pregnancy
Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease
IV. Other In a previous study of MERS-CoV, there were 11 pregnant women .

Of 9 pregnant women, 4 (44%) had premature delivery .
2020-06-30 Liu et al Why are pregnant women susceptible to COVID-19? An immunological viewpoint
Journal of Reproductive Immunology
IV. Prevalence Study

A total of eighteen pregnant women infected with NCP (mean age: 30 years) had one or two common clinical symptoms, such as fever, cough, cholecystitis, sore throat, and diarrhea.
Particularly, pregnant women may be more susceptible to COVID-19 since pregnant women, in general, are vulnerable to respiratory infection.

4 Socio-economic and behavioral factors to understand the economic impact of the virus and whether there were differences.

4.0.0.1 Highlights

4.0.0.2 Articles

Date Authors Title LOE(?) & Sample Matches
2020 Sun et al Early epidemiological analysis of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak based on crowdsourced data: a population-level observational study
The Lancet Digital Health
IV. Prevalence Study

Findings We collected data for 507 patients with COVID-19 reported between Jan 13 and Jan 31, 2020, including 364 from mainland China and 143 from outside of China.
This pattern could indicate agerelated differences in susceptibility to infection, severe outcomes, or behaviour.
2020-02-05 Ai et al Population movement, city closure and spatial transmission of the 2019-nCoV infection in China
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study Since the political and economic effects were not considered, further 288 studies on secondary impacts of the measure, like socioeconomic impacts, were also 289 warranted.
2020-02-17 Anzai et al Assessing the impact of reduced travel on exportation dynamics of novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19)
medrxiv
IV. Other These political decisions regarding movement restrictions must balance the expected epidemiological impact with predicted economic burden-the latter of which we did not examine.
2020-02-20 Qian et al Psychological responses, behavioral changes and public perceptions during the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in China: a population based cross-sectional survey
medrxiv
III-2. Cross Sectional Control

17, 18 Before our survey, Wuhan confirmed 3,215 cases, 19 accounting for 27.3% of all cases across China; 20 Shanghai reported 153 cases, 68 (44.4%) of them from nonlocal residents.
14, 15 Behavioral changes are also associated with government involvement level, perceptions of diseases, and the stage of the outbreak, and these factors vary by diseases and settings.

Perception factors associated with anxiety and behavioral responses Table 1 are controlled for.
2020-02-24 Anzai et al Assessing the Impact of Reduced Travel on Exportation Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19)
J Clin Med
IV. Other These political decisions regarding movement restrictions must balance the expected epidemiological impact with predicted economic burden-the latter of which we did not examine.
2020-03-03 Yang et al The deadly coronaviruses: The 2003 SARS pandemic and the 2020 novel coronavirus epidemic in China
Journal of Autoimmunity
IV. Prevalence Study

In Wang's study , of the 36 patients in the ICU, four patients received high-flow oxygen therapy, 15 patients received non-invasive ventilation, and 17 patients received invasive ventilation (four patients switched to ECMO).
The costs of the epidemic are not limited to medical aspects, as the virus has led to significant sociological, psychological and economic effects globally.
2020-03-05 Johnson et al Potential scenarios for the progression of a COVID-19 epidemic in the European Union and the European Economic Area, March 2020
Euro Surveill
IV. Prevalence Study The outbreak could cause substantial social, political and economic disruption also in parts of the world not directly affected by the virus.
2020-03-06 Liu et al Effects of progressive muscle relaxation on anxiety and sleep quality in patients with COVID-19
Complementary Therapies in Clinical Practice
IV. Other The limitations of our study are the individual differences and psychological conditions of the sample, the influence of environmental and cultural factors on the individual, and the patient's attention during the hospital stay.
2020-03-06 Dai et al Psychological impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on healthcare workers in China
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study Psychological impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on healthcare workers in China
2020-03-06 Lauro et al The timing of one-shot interventions for epidemic control
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study Thus to compare whether a global intervention is comparable to an individually targeted intervention and understand the magnitude of the difference, we need to explore a population with weak coupling.
2020-03-12 Tang et al Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pneumonia in a Hemodialysis Patient
Kidney Medicine
IV. Other 1 COVID-19 pneumonia has had a significant impact on people's health and social activity behavior and on economic development.
2020-03-13 Bayham et al The Impact of School Closure for COVID-19 on the US Healthcare Workforce and the Net Mortality Effects
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

10 We use the recent dataset, which includes information on just over 3 million individuals spread across 1.25 million households between January 2018-2020.
These differences are likely an interaction of variations in state-level healthcare regulation, cultural, and demographic differences.
2020-03-17 Qiu et al Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study A main objective of this paper is to quantify the effect of various social and economic factors in mediating the transmission rates of the virus, which may help identify potential behavioral and socioeconomic risk factors for infections.
2020-03-17 Shi et al Temporal relationship between outbound traffic from Wuhan and the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) incidence in China
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

We further estimated that the travel ban may have prevented approximately 19,768 COVID-19 cases (95% CI: 13,589, 25,946) outside of Wuhan by February 29, 2020.
We included demographic, economic, and geographical factors that are potential contributors to the provincial variation in the association between traffic volume and COVID-19 incidence.
2020-03-18 Lazzerini et al COVID-19 in Italy: momentous decisions and many uncertainties
The Lancet Global Health
IV. Other 2, 3 The economic and psychological impact of the epidemic is enormous.
2020-03-19 Zhao et al A systematic approach is needed to contain COVID-19 globally
Science Bulletin
IV. Prevalence Study The emergence and spread of an epidemic disease occurs not only because of factors related to the virulence and infection capacity of the virus itself, but also due to socio-economic and environmental factors such as population movement .
2020-03-20 Aguilar et al Investigating the Impact of Asymptomatic Carriers on COVID-19 Transmission
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study Changes in behavioral patterns in response to an outbreak have an effect on the propagation of a disease.
2020-03-20 Brooks et al The psychological impact of quarantine and how to reduce it: rapid review of the evidence
The Lancet
IV. Prevalence Study

A study 28 of horse owners quarantined because of equine influenza identified several characteristics associated with negative psycho logical impacts: younger age (16-24 years), lower levels of formal educational qualifications, female gender, and having one child as opposed to no children (although having three or more children appeared somewhat protective).
There was mixed evidence for whether participant characteristics and demographics were predictors of the psychological impact of quarantine.
2020-03-20 Cao et al The psychological impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on college students in China
Psychiatry Research
IV. Prevalence Study

Among the sample of 7143 college students, approximately two-third were women 67 (0.94%).
Results of correlation analysis indicated that economic effects, and effects on daily life, as well as delays in academic activities, were positively associated with anxiety symptoms (P < .001).

Spearman's correlation coefficient, r, was used to evaluate the association between COVID-19-related stressors, including economic and daily-life related stressors, as well as stressors related to delays in academic activities, and anxiety level.

Consistent with our hypothesis, the COVID-19-related stressors, which include economic stressors, effects on daily-life, and academic delays, were positively associated with anxiety symptoms of Chinese college students during the epidemic.
2020-03-20 Fefferman et al Fear, Access, and the Real-Time Estimation of Etiological Parameters for Outbreaks of Novel Pathogens
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

For simplicity 134 sake, we will assume that correct diagnosis and treatment has no bearing on the duration 135 of illness/ recovery time, nor on the rates of transmission from infected to susceptible 136 individuals.
343 344 Some studies have been able to assess the impact of public health announcement-or 345 media-driven behavioral change with regard to disease risk and diagnosis (e.g.
2020-03-20 Gilbert et al Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study
The Lancet
IV. Prevalence Study Both SPAR and Joint External Evaluation metrics were designed to quantify each country's functional capacity, without accounting for other indirect factors that might compromise the control of emerging epidemics, such as demographic, environmental, socioeconomic, and political conditions.
2020-03-23 Wang et al Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of public health measures to control COVID-19: a modelling study
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study One-and-two-way sensitivity analyses were performed to explore impact of the parameters in the range to test the robustness of the findings, including the epidemiological characteristics, interventions implement, and economic parameters.
2020-03-25 La Marca et al COVID-19: lessons from the Italian reproductive medical experience
Fertility and Sterility
IV. Other The societal and economic impact of these changes at this time is too large to assess.
2020-03-26 Hu et al Risk Factors Associated with Clinical Outcomes in 323 COVID-19 Patients in Wuhan, China
medrxiv
III-2. Retrospective Cohort

At the end of the study, 252 patients had recovered and were discharged, 35 patients had died (overall case fatality rate, 10.8%), and 36 patients were still hospitalized.
Logistic regression models were performed to identify factors associated with clinical outcomes, and logrank test was conducted for the association with clinical progression.
2020-03-27 Han et al Lactate dehydrogenase, a Risk Factor of Severe COVID-19 Patients
medrxiv
III-2. Cross Sectional Control

A total of 47 diagnosed cases were enrolled in this study, with 24 severe cases and 23 non-severe cases ( Table 1)
To assess the risk factors of the demographic, characteristics and laboratory indicators on the severity of COVID-19 patients, logistic regression analysis was performed on the parameters of significant difference using t test.
2020-03-27 Hsiang et al The Effect of Large-Scale Anti-Contagion Policies on the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

We did not collect city level health outcomes recorded prior to January 24, 2020 in provinces that had fewer than ten confirmed cases at that date.
Crucially, we may not know the effect that large-scale policy (z) will have on behavior (x(z)) or how this behavior change will affect infection rates (f (·)).

varying intercepts captured as coefficients to dummy variables) to account for all time-invariant factors that affect the local growth rate of infections, such as differences in demographics, socio-economic status, culture, or health systems.

7, 14, 22 The rate of this exponential growth may change daily and is determined by epidemiological factors, such as disease infectivity and contact networks, as well as policies that induce behavior changes.
2020-03-27 Pepe et al COVID-19 outbreak response: a first assessment of mobility changes in Italy following national lockdown
medrxiv
IV. Other A major challenge in this situation is to quantitatively assess in real-time the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as mobility restrictions and social distancing, to better understand the ensuing reduction of mobility flows, individual mobility changes, and their impact on contact patterns.
2020-03-27 Dudley et al Disparities in Age-Specific Morbidity and Mortality from SARS-CoV-2 in China and the Republic of Korea
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis We hypothesize that differences in public health intervention practices and age-related sociocultural factors may be significant factors mediating the observed marked disparities in the age-specific and sexspecific rates of infection from confirmed cases in China and Korea.
2020-03-27 Ficetola et al Climate affects global patterns of COVID-19 early outbreak dynamics
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

We define a local outbreak event when at least 50 positive cases were detected in a given country/region, and calculated the growth rate of confirmed Covid-19 cases between day 1 and day 5, when day 1 was the day at which the 50 cases 10 threshold was reached.
Environmental factors, including seasonal climatic variability, can strongly impact on spatio-temporal patterns of infectious disease outbreaks.
2020-03-29 Kim et al Using psychoneuroimmunity against COVID-19
Brain, Behavior, and Immunity
IV. Other The dramatic increases of public fears and decreases in social and economic activities may trigger psychosocial sequelae.

Furthermore, psychosocial stresses imposed by societal changes in response to this epidemic viral infection may increase psychiatric problems.
2020-03-30 Buhat et al A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission between frontliners and the general public
medrxiv
IV. Computer Model However, these parameters vary considering the heterogeneity of the population, location of virus transmission, and socio-economic and political factors [Rabajante, 2020] .
2020-03-30 Qi et al COVID-19 transmission in Mainland China is associated with temperature and humidity: a time-series analysis
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis The reasons for the inconsistency in the impact of meteorological factors on COVID-19 among provinces needs further study.
2020-03-30 Dong et al Prevalence and Factors Associated with Depression and Anxiety of Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

Methods: A total of 144 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 were included in this study.
3) This cross-sectional study is not capable to determine a causal relationship between mental health (anxiety or depression) and the sociodemographic and clinical variables.
2020-03-30 Wang et al The psychological distress and coping styles in the early stages of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic in the general mainland Chinese population: a web-based survey
medrxiv
IV. Other Results General population's psychological distress were significant differences based on age, marriage, epidemic contact characteristics, concern with media reports, and perceived impacts of the epidemic outbreak (all p <0.001) except gender (p=0.316).
2020-03-31 Ngoi et al A segregated-team model to maintain cancer care during the COVID-19 outbreak at an academic center in Singapore
Annals of Oncology
IV. Prevalence Study

The higher risk of COVID-19 complications in cancer patients 6 required a coordinated effort to ensure business continuity while maintaining patient and staff safety.
The impact of COVID-19 on treatment and outcomes of patients with cancer, patients' perspectives, the psycho-emotional impact on healthcare workers, and economic repercussions are important areas of future research.
2020-03-31 Singer et al What is ahead for health policy and technology in the 2020s?
Health Policy and Technology
IV. Other Further health-related pressures in the coming decade will include the impact of ageing populations, capacity limits in respite care and residential homes, increasing economic migration from less developed to developed countries, and a growing impact of climate change and pollution on health and disease.
2020-03-31 Acuna-Zegarra et al The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak: a review of plausible scenarios of containment and mitigation for Mexico
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

Observe that the peak incidence is approximately 4 935 individuals and it occurs 2 days after isolation began (January 26th, ) Figure 14(b) ).
Behavioral change is one of the main forms to reduce contact rates .
2020-04-01 Messner et al The Institutional and Cultural Context of Cross-National Variation in COVID-19 Outbreaks
medrxiv
IV. Other To understand whether the institutional and cultural context influences the COVID-19 outbreak.
2020-04-01 Rossberg et al How will this continue? Modelling interactions between the COVID-19 pandemic and policy responses
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

We seeded the model with 10 asymptomatic early stage individuals, i.e., we start with S = N -10, I s1 = 10, I a1 = 10, I s2 = 0, I a2 = 0, using Italic symbols to represent population numbers in corresponding stages.
The factors determining how an individual's behaviour changes with respect to an epidemic threat will include the degree of perceived risk and the perceived benefits from a particular behavioural change (Yan et al.
2020-04-01 Zipfel et al Assessing the interactions between COVID-19 and influenza in the United States
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study Our results suggest that the dynamics of the 2019-2020 influenza season were impacted directly through transmission-reducing behaviors resulting from COVID-19 risk perception or indirectly through ecological interference between the two infections.
2020-04-30 Djalante et al Building resilience against biological hazards and pandemics: COVID-19 and its implications for the Sendai Framework
Progress in Disaster Science
IV. Prevalence Study Some aspects of risk perception, awareness and response is a cultural issue, and powerfully linked to the socio-economic structure of the country and community.
2020-04-30 Asmundson et al How health anxiety influences responses to viral outbreaks like COVID-19: What all decision-makers, health authorities, and health care professionals need to know
Journal of Anxiety Disorders
IV. Other As per our recent recommendations (Asmundson & Taylor, 2020) , more research is needed to understand how individual difference factors, including health anxiety, specifically impact behaviour in response to COVID-19.
2020-04-30 Sohrabi et al World Health Organization declares global emergency: A review of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19)
International Journal of Surgery
IV. Prevalence Study

To date, 85 individuals have tested positive resulting in the UK public health risk for viral infection being raised from low to moderate .
These factors will ultimately influence mortality rates and prognosis.
2020-06-30 Liu et al Positive rate of RT-PCR detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection in 4880 cases from one hospital in Wuhan, China, from Jan to Feb 2020
Clinica Chimica Acta
IV. Prevalence Study Chi-square test was used to compare inter-group differences, and binary logistic regression analysis was performed to analyze the risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 prevalence.

5 Transmission dynamics of the virus, including the basic reproductive number, incubation period, serial interval, modes of transmission and environmental factors

5.0.0.1 Highlights

5.0.0.2 Articles

Date Authors Title LOE(?) & Sample Matches
2020 Special Expert Group for Control of the Epidemic of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia of the Chinese Preventive Medicine et al An update on the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi
IV. Other The average incubation period was 5.2 days, and the basic reproductive number R was 2.2 at the onset of the outbreak.
2020-02-05 Boldog et al Risk assessment of novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreaks outside China
medrxiv
IV. Other In this model, the basic reproduction number is R 0 = β/γ, the incubation period is α −1 and the infectious period is γ −1 .

To better assess the epidemic risk of 2019-nCoV, among the key parameters to be approximated are the basic reproduction number R 0 and the incubation period.
2020-02-05 Chowell et al Getting to zero quickly in the 2019-nCov epidemic with vaccines or rapid testing
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study Where b is the transmission rate and q is a parameter ranging from 0 to 1 that models the relative infectiousness of individuals during the incubation period of the disease.
2020-02-05 Tuite et al Reporting, Epidemic Growth, and Reproduction Numbers for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Epidemic
Ann Intern Med
IV. Prevalence Study Serial interval is the average time between cases in a chain of transmission and is used to calculate the number of generations in an epidemic (time since epidemic start ÷ serial interval duration).
2020-02-05 Hermanowicz et al Forecasting the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemics using a simple (simplistic) model - update (Feb. 8, 2020)
medrxiv
IV. Computer Model where P(t) and P(t+1) are populations on consecutive days, R0 * is the growth rate (basic reproduction number in epidemiology) at the beginning of the logistic growth, and K is the limiting population.
2020-02-06 Muniz-Rodriguez et al Epidemic doubling time of the COVID-19 epidemic by Chinese province
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study We used the following R0 equation in Vynnycky and White ( Table 4.1 Equation 4 .16) to calculate R: R0 = 1 + growth rate ✕ serial interval + ratio between the infectious period and the serial interval ✕ (1ratio between the infectious period and the serial interval) ✕ (growth rate ✕ serial interval) 2
2020-02-14 Danon et al A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing
medrxiv
IV. Other Epidemiological analysis of the outbreak was quickly used to start estimating epidemiologicallyrelevant parameters, such as the basic reproduction number, the serial interval, the incubation period and the case fatality rate .
2020-02-18 Zhou et al Evaluating new evidence in the early dynamics of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China with real time domestic traffic and potential asymptomatic transmissions
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

The infection status of a total of 2,666 individuals that successfully evacuated from Wuhan between Jan. 29 and Feb. 2, 2020 were used in this study.
In the dynamics of an outbreak, the basic reproductive number R 0 is an important epidemiological parameter: it measures the number of cases an initial infectious individual can generate in a fully susceptible population.
2020-02-20 Maier et al Effective containment explains sub-exponential growth in confirmed cases of recent COVID-19 outbreak in Mainland China
medrxiv
IV. Other We fixed the epidemiological parameters to duration of infection T I = 8 d and basic reproduction number R 0,free = αT I = 6.2.

The temporal evolution of the number of cases is governed by two processes: The infection that describes the transmission from an infectious to a susceptible individual with basic reproduction number R 0 and the recovery of an infected after an infectious period of average length T I .
2020-02-23 Zhang et al Evolving epidemiology of novel coronavirus diseases 2019 and possible interruption of local transmission outside Hubei Province in China: a descriptive and modeling study
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

21.20026328 We analyzed the time interval between symptom onset in 35 secondary cases and symptom onset in 28 corresponding primary cases.
A comparison between the distribution of the incubation period and of the serial interval is reported in Fig.
2020-02-24 Viceconte et al COVID-19 R0: Magic number or conundrum?
Infect Dis Rep
IV. Computer Model 9 Firstly, R0 is not an intrinsic variable of the infectious agent, but it is calculated through at least three parameters: the duration of contagiousness; the likelihood of infection per contact between; and the contact rate, along with economical, social and environmental factors, that may vary among studies aimed to estimate the R0.
2020-03-04 Bi et al Epidemiology and Transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

Time from symptom onset to death was marked by "+" for the three patients who have died.
The observed reproductive number was 0.4, with a mean serial interval of 6.3 days.
2020-03-05 Wilder-Smith et al Can we contain the COVID-19 outbreak with the same measures as for SARS?
The Lancet Infectious Diseases
IV. Prevalence Study

On Feb 18, 2020, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention published their data of the first 72 314 patients including 44 672 patients with confirmed COVID19.
The mean serial interval of COVID19 is 7·5 days (95% CI 5·3-19·0) and the initial estimate for the basic number (R₀) was 2·2 (95% CI 1·4-3·9), 4 similar to that reported for SARS (mean serial interval 8·4 days, and basic R₀ range 2·2-3·6 for serial intervals of 8-12 days).
2020-03-06 Tindale et al Transmission interval estimates suggest pre-symptomatic spread of COVID-19
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

The estimated basic reproduction number for Singapore was 1.97 (1.45, 2.48) secondary cases per infective; for Tianjin it was 1.87 (1.65,2.09) secondary cases per infective.
We sampled the estimated serial interval and incubation period distributions to estimate the probability that the incubation period minus the serial interval is negative.

Here we use transmission clusters in two locations where cases have reported links, exposure and symptom onset times to estimate both the incubation period and serial interval of COVID-19.

We calculate the reproduction number as in : R = exp rµ − 1/2r 2 σ 2 with r the exponential growth rate, µ the mean serial interval and σ the standard deviation of the serial interval.
2020-03-06 Ping et al Epidemiologic Characteristics of COVID-19 in Guizhou, China
medrxiv
IV. Other With an estimation of 8 days incubation period and 6 days serial interval, our results indicate that there may exist infectiousness during the incubation period for 2019-nCoV.
2020-03-06 Kraemer et al The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China
medrxiv
IV. Computer Model Statistical inference of the incubation period: The incubation period is the time interval between infection and symptom onset.
2020-03-08 Peak et al Modeling the Comparative Impact of Individual Quarantine vs. Active Monitoring of Contacts for the Mitigation of COVID-19
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

15 For the shorter serial interval scenario 1, the median incremental benefit of individual quarantine over active monitoring is much larger at 0.93, corresponding to a need to quarantine 1.1 infected contacts to prevent one secondary infection on average; though, if only 0.04% of traced contacts are infected, nearly 2,500 individuals need to be quarantined to prevent one secondary infection relative to active monitoring.
First, the serial interval and extent of presymptomatic transmission are important determinants of the effectiveness of interventions.
2020-03-08 Ganyani et al Estimating the generation interval for COVID-19 based on symptom onset data
medrxiv
IV. Other Examples of key parameters include the reproduction number (average number of infections caused by an infectious individual) and distributions of the generation interval (time between infection events in an infector-infectee pair), serial interval (time between symptom onsets in an infector-infectee pair), and incubation period (time between moment of infection and symptom onset) .
2020-03-10 Muniz-Rodriguez et al Transmission potential of COVID-19 in Iran
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

Since the first two cases were 28 confirmed on February 19, 2020, a total of 593 cases have been reported as of February 29 .
Reproduction number = 1 + growth rate × serial interval 44
2020-03-12 Wu et al The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak: what we know
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
IV. Other With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9) .
2020-03-16 Wang et al Strongly heterogeneous transmission of COVID-19 in mainland China: local and regional variation
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

For early transmission in Wuhan, any infectious case produced as many as four new cases, transmission outside Wuhan was less intense, with reproduction numbers below two.
The variation of serial interval could caused by highly varied incubation period .
2020-03-17 Qiu et al Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study The transmission rate of COVID-19 may be affected by many environmental factors.
2020-03-18 He et al Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

A total of 414 throat swabs were collected from these 94 patients (median = 4 swabs per patient), from the day of illness onset up to 32 days after onset.
The timing of transmission to secondary cases were simulated according to the infectiousness profile using a lognormal and exponential distribution respectively, where the serial intervals were estimated as the sum of the onset to transmission interval and the incubation period.

variation can be summarized by the incubation period distribution and the serial interval distribution respectively.
2020-03-20 Ahmadi et al Modeling and Forecasting Trend of COVID-19 Epidemic in Iran
medrxiv
IV. Computer Model The mean incubation period was 5.2 days, and the basic reproductive number (R zero) in china was 2.2 at the onset of the epidemic.
2020-03-21 Sun et al COVID-19: Epidemiology, Evolution, and Cross-Disciplinary Perspectives
Trends in Molecular Medicine
IV. Prevalence Study

Asymptomatic infection was also documented in Germany: two asymptomatic patients' throat samples were tested positive by reverse transcription (RT)-PCR and by virus isolation, while both patients remained well and afebrile for 7 days .
Initial evaluation of COVID-19 transmission dynamics showed that the basic reproductive number (R 0 ) of 2019-nCoV is estimated to be 1.4-3.9 .
2020-03-23 Zareie et al A model for COVID-19 prediction in Iran based on China parameters
medrxiv
IV. Other The course of each epidemic depends on a number of important factors such as the Basic Reproductive Rate, the doubling time or serial interval, and the fatality rate.
2020-03-23 Coelho et al Assessing the potential impacts of COVID-19 in Brasil: Mobility, Morbidity and Impact to the Health System
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study The parameter R 0 is the basic reproduction number .
2020-03-23 Siwiak et al From a single host to global spread. The global mobility based modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic implies higher infection and lower detection rates than current estimates.
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study The parameter β is derived from the time a host remains infectious, d , and the basic reproduction number of the virus, R 0 :
2020-03-23 Koo et al Interventions to mitigate early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore: a modelling study
The Lancet Infectious Diseases
IV. Prevalence Study

20 Asymptomatic individuals were able to infect at a 50% reduced rate compared with their symptomatic counterparts based on estimates from Nishiura and colleagues.
Using this model, we estimated the cumulative number of SARS-CoV-2 infections at 80 days, after detection of 100 cases of community transmission, under three infectivity scenarios (basic reproduction number [R 0] of 1·5, 2·0, or 2·5) and assuming 7·5% of infections are asymptomatic.
2020-03-24 Ma et al Epidemiological parameters of coronavirus disease 2019: a pooled analysis of publicly reported individual data of 1155 cases from seven countries
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

For two cases to qualify as an infector-infectee pair and be included in this study, the following two criteria must both be fulfilled.
Incubation period and serial interval are also key parameters for epidemiological modelling in predicting the transmission dynamics, including the basic reproduction number (R0).

This study aimed to obtain robust estimates of the incubation period, upper limit of latent period (interval between exposure of infector and infectee), serial interval, time point of exposure and basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19.

This study aimed to obtain robust estimates of the incubation period, upper limit of latent period (interval between infector's exposure and infectee's exposure), serial interval, time point of exposure (the day of infectee's exposure to infector relative to the latter's symptom onset date) and basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19.

where r is exponential growth rate, μ is mean serial interval, σ is standard deviation of serial interval, 1/a is latent period, and 1/b is infectious period.

Despite the explosive growth of the number of studies on COVID-19, several key epidemiological parameters of the disease remain to be clarified, among which are incubation period and serial interval.

Estimation of the time point of exposure and upper limit of latent period also involved determination of exposure date and judgement about transmission chain, hence the related principles applied in estimating incubation period and serial interval were also followed here.
2020-03-24 Xu et al Epidemiological data from the COVID-19 outbreak, real-time case information
Sci Data
IV. Other Increasingly, epidemiological studies are performed in real-time during an outbreak to understand key metrics such as the epidemic's reproduction number, serial interval distribution, incubation period and risk of international spread 2,3 .
2020-03-27 Ficetola et al Climate affects global patterns of COVID-19 early outbreak dynamics
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

We define a local outbreak event when at least 50 positive cases were detected in a given country/region, and calculated the growth rate of confirmed Covid-19 cases between day 1 and day 5, when day 1 was the day at which the 50 cases 10 threshold was reached.
Environmental factors, including seasonal climatic variability, can strongly impact on spatio-temporal patterns of infectious disease outbreaks.

Abstract: Environmental factors, including seasonal climatic variability, can strongly impact on spatio-temporal patterns of infectious disease outbreaks.
2020-03-30 Dy et al A COVID-19 Infection Risk Model for Frontline Health Care Workers
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

A doctor doing brief rounds on 10 patients (where each patient is looked upon in at most 30 seconds) or the situation of having 5 patients per minute are equivalent to 10 encounters.
The parameter is assumed to be a function of the COVID-19 basic reproductive number (R0 = 3) divided by the infectious period = 14.
2020-03-30 Buhat et al A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission between frontliners and the general public
medrxiv
IV. Computer Model In models of the spread of COVID-19, the key parameters are the basic reproduction number which refers to the average number of secondary cases generated from a contagious person, and a dispersion parameter that can provide further information about outbreak dynamics and potential for superspreading events [Riou and Althaus 2020] .
2020-03-30 pawar et al Effects of temperature on COVID-19 transmission
medrxiv
IV. Other Environmental factors such as atmospheric temperature modulates the survival and spread of virus aerosols.
2020-03-30 Qi et al COVID-19 transmission in Mainland China is associated with temperature and humidity: a time-series analysis
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis Environmental factors such as temperature and relative humidity may influence the transmissions of coronavirus
2020-03-31 Lai et al Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19): The epidemic and the challenges
International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents
IV. Other It is spread by human-to-human transmission via droplets or direct contact, and infection has been estimated to have mean incubation period of 6.4 days and a basic reproduction number of 2.24–3.58.
2020-04-01 Zhu et al Transmission Dynamics and Control Methodology of COVID-19: a Modeling Study
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

3) , there are no more than 5 new cases every day from Dec 8 to Dec 28.
The latent period, infectious period and basic reproduction number of COVID-19 are estimated to be 4.19, 12.53 and 7.90, respectively.
2020-12-31 Li et al Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19
Infectious Disease Modelling
IV. Computer Model The study points out the key factors that affect the spread of the virus, such as the basic reproduction number, virus incubation period, and daily infection number.

6 Severity of disease, including risk of fatality among symptomatic hospitalized patients, and high-risk patient groups

6.0.0.1 Highlights

6.0.0.2 Articles

Date Authors Title LOE(?) & Sample Matches
2020 Special Expert Group for Control of the Epidemic of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia of the Chinese Preventive Medicine et al An update on the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi
IV. Other The case fatality rate was 2.38%, and elderly men with underlying diseases were at a higher risk of death.
2020 Lai et al Asymptomatic carrier state, acute respiratory disease, and pneumonia due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2): Facts and myths
Journal of Microbiology, Immunology and Infection
IV. Prevalence Study

Regarding children with COVID-19, nine (0.9%) patients aged 0-14 years were found in only one study, 11 while 14 (0.35%) patients were aged ≤ 10 years in another study.
15 Similarly, the China CDC reported that patients aged ≥ 80 years had the highest case fatality rate, 14.8%, among different age groups, and the case fatality rate of patients in which disease severity was critical was 49.0%.
2020 Lim et al The Author's Response: Case of the Index Patient Who Caused Tertiary Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Korea: the Application of Lopinavir/Ritonavir for the Treatment of COVID-19 Pneumonia Monitored by Quantitative RT-PCR
J Korean Med Sci
IV. Other 3 If these clinical studies are successful, they can provide us with more efficient treatment options and suggest better choices for COVID-19 treatment in high-risk groups (elderly patients or patients with underlying diseases).
2020-01-23 Wu et al Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020
Euro Surveill
IV. Prevalence Study While the overall severity profile among cases may change as more mild cases are identified, we estimate a risk of fatality among hospitalised cases at 14% (95% confidence interval: 3.9–32%).

While the overall severity profile among cases may change as more mild cases are identified, we estimate a risk of fatality among hospitalised cases at 14% (95% confidence interval: 3.9-32%).
2020-02-02 Jung et al Real time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection: Inference using exported cases
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

As of 24 January 2020, with 23 exported cases, and estimating the growth rate from 8 December 2019 (scenario 1) and using the data since growth of exported cases (scenario 2), the cumulative incidence in China was estimated at 5433 cases (95% confidence interval (CI): 3883, 7160) and 17780 cases (95% CI: 9646, 28724), respectively.
In addition to quantifying the overall risk of death, future research must identify groups at risk of death (e.g., the elderly and people with underlying comorbidities) .
2020-02-03 Čivljak et al The third coronavirus epidemic in the third millennium: what’s next?
Croat Med J
IV. Prevalence Study

However, the largest study to date on more than 72 000 patients from China has shown that health care workers make up 3.8% of the patients.
It is still not clear which factors contribute to the risk of transmitting the infection, especially by persons who are in the incubation stage or asymptomatic, as well as which factors contribute to the severity of the disease and fatal outcome.
2020-02-05 Spencer et al Epidemiological parameter review and comparative dynamics of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, human coronavirus, and adenovirus
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

The model diagram ( Fig.1) illustrates the progression of influenza-like illness (ILI) in a human population of a hypothetical small city containing 10,000 individuals.
Four compartments, latently infected individuals (E), symptomatic and infected individuals (I 1 ), symptomatic and infected and non-hospitalized individuals (I 2 ), and hospitalized individuals (H), together characterize the total infected population for the ILI virus system.
2020-02-09 Guan et al Clinical characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infection in China
medrxiv
III-2. Retrospective Cohort

The core data sets (including clinical outcomes and symptoms) of 3 patients were lacking due to the incompleteness of original reports, hence this report delineates 1,099 patients with 2019-nCoV ARD from 552 hospitals in 31 provinces/province-level municipalities (Fig.
The risk of composite endpoints among hospitalized cases and the potential risk factors were analyzed using Fine-Gray competing-risk models in which recovery is a competing risk.
2020-02-14 Jung et al Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases
J Clin Med
III-3. Time Series Analysis

Our data include 51 cases diagnosed outside China who had illness onset through 24 January and were reported by 9 February 2020 and the dates of illness onset and death among 41 deceased cases in China.
In addition to quantifying the overall risk of death, future research must identify groups at risk of death (e.g., the elderly and people with underlying comorbidities) .
2020-02-21 Kobayashi et al Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
J Clin Med
III-3. Time Series Analysis

Out of 218 cases, there are 10 critically ill patients as of 15 February 2020.
To understand the severity of infection, i.e., the virulence of the causative agent of COVID-19, the common epidemiological practice is to estimate the case fatality risk (CFR) as the risk of death among cases (for the sake of practical interpretation, we refer to it as the case fatality risk rather than the case fatality rate ).

However, the risk among elderly with underlying comorbidities may be substantial.
2020-02-23 Ai et al The cross-sectional study of hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 patients in Xiangyang, Hubei province
medrxiv
III-2. Cross Sectional Control

A total of 102 cases (52 males and 50 females) with positive real-time RT-PCR results were included in our study.
In addition, disease severity and fatality were higher among the elderly compared with the rest cases.
2020-02-23 Ge et al Assessing the impact of a symptom-based mass screening and testing intervention during a novel infectious disease outbreak: The case of COVID-19
medrxiv
IV. Other (1 − ) and the total mortality risk is = + (1 − ).
2020-02-25 Jin et al Gender differences in patients with COVID-19: Focus on severity and mortality
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

In the public data set, the first 37 cases died of COVID-19 in Wuhan city and the 1019 survived patients with COVID-19 from six cities with a high prevalence of the disease were obtained from the Chinese Public Health Science Data Center.
Therefore, Gender is a risk factor for higher severity and mortality in patients with both COVID-19 and SARS independent of age and susceptibility.
2020-02-25 Han et al Coronavirus 2019-nCoV: A brief perspective from the front line
Journal of Infection
II. Randomized Controlled Trial

24 The most common symptoms are fever (87.9%), fatigue (69.6%), dry cough (67.7%) and myalgia (34.8%), and these are accompanied with rhinobyon, rhinorrhoea, pharyngalgia and diarrhea in few patients 24 ( Table 1 ) of these patients were characterized by dyspnea and hypoxemia, which can rapidly progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), septic shock, metabolic acidosis, coagulation dysfunction, and even multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) in one week.
10 , 18 , 19 All age groups are susceptible to the virus, of which elderly patients with comorbidities are more likely to experience severe illness.
2020-02-28 Fisher et al Q&A: The novel coronavirus outbreak causing COVID-19
BMC Med
IV. Other The severity of the disease appears to be associated with age, with the elderly most at risk; those over 80 years of age had a Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 14.8%.
2020-03-05 Johnson et al Potential scenarios for the progression of a COVID-19 epidemic in the European Union and the European Economic Area, March 2020
Euro Surveill
IV. Prevalence Study Large uncertainty remains regarding the severity of disease, case fatality ratios and risk groups.
2020-03-05 Spiteri et al First cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the WHO European Region, 24 January to 21 February 2020
Euro Surveill
IV. Prevalence Study Hospital-based surveillance could help estimate the incidence of severe cases and identify risk factors for severity and death.
2020-03-06 Riou et al Adjusted age-specific case fatality ratio during the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei, China, January and February 2020
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

The model estimates that a total of 82,300 individuals (95%CrI: 73,000-91,800) were infected in Hubei between 1 January and 11 February 2020.
Clinicians need to know age-and sex-specific mortality among symptomatic patients seeking care to assess prognosis and, in severe situations, prioritize patients with the best expected outcomes.
2020-03-08 Xu et al Acute Myocardial Injury of Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

Methods: We analyzed data from 53 consecutive laboratory-confirmed and hospitalized COVID-19 patients (28 men, 25 women; age, 19-81 years).
Notably, CRP levels, NCP severity, and underlying comorbidities were the major risk factors for AMI in the COVID-19 patients.

Elevated CRP levels, underlying comorbidities, and NCP severity are the main risk factors for cardiac complications in COVID-19 patients.
2020-03-10 Lippi et al Cardiac troponin I in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Evidence from a meta-analysis
Progress in Cardiovascular Diseases
I. Systematic Review

One additional study could be identified from reading the reference list of the three selected documents, so that 4 studies were finally included in our meta-analysis.
2 People with underlying cardiovascular disease are among the highest risk individuals for severe disease and death.
2020-03-12 Yang et al Prevalence of comorbidities in the novel Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
I. Systematic Review

Results Eight studies were included in the meta- analysis, including 46248 infected patients.
Aims The aim of the meta-analysis was to assess the prevalence of comorbidities in the COVID-19 infection patients and the risk of underlying diseases in severe patients compared to non-severe patients.
2020-03-13 Rodriguez-Morales et al Clinical, laboratory and imaging features of COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease
I. Systematic Review

Our review included 19 studies that were published between January 1, 2020, and February 21, 2020, most of them from China and one from Australia (Table 1) , including a total of 2874 patients, ranging from a case series of 9 to a cross-sectional study of 1590 .
Despite the implementation of optimal supportive interventions, case fatality rate among hospitalized patients is more than 10%.
2020-03-16 Jain et al Systematic review and meta-analysis of predictive symptoms and comorbidities for severe COVID-19 infection
medrxiv
I. Systematic Review

Results Of the 2259 studies identified, 42 were selected after title and abstract analysis, and 7 studies (including 1813 COVID−19 patients) were chosen for inclusion.
When looking at ICU-admitted patients, who represent the more severe end of the spectrum of clinical severity, COPD patients are particularly vulnerable, and those with cardiovascular disease and hypertension are also at a high-risk of severe illness.

Multivariable analysis to identify which groups of symptoms or comorbidities are most associated with severe or critical disease will also be valuable.
2020-03-18 Shi et al Host susceptibility to severe COVID-19 and establishment of a host risk score: findings of 487 cases outside Wuhan
Crit Care
IV. Other Additionally, the host risk score provides a useful tool to identify high-risk individuals, which is helpful for designing specific strategies for prevention and treatment of this disease.
2020-03-18 Sun et al Lower mortality of COVID-19 by early recognition and intervention: experience from Jiangsu Province
Ann Intensive Care
IV. Other Since the severity of disease is closely related to the prognosis, the basic and essential strategies to improve outcomes that we should adhere to remain the early detection of high-risk and critically ill patients .
2020-03-20 Ahmadi et al Modeling and Forecasting Trend of COVID-19 Epidemic in Iran
medrxiv
IV. Computer Model The case fatality ratio was 2.38%, and elderly men with underlying diseases were at a higher risk of death .
2020-03-21 DeCaprio et al Building a COVID-19 Vulnerability Index
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study The risk of severe complications from COVID-19 is higher for certain vulnerable populations, particularly people who are elderly, frail, or have multiple chronic conditions.
2020-03-23 Koo et al Interventions to mitigate early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore: a modelling study
The Lancet Infectious Diseases
IV. Prevalence Study

20 Asymptomatic individuals were able to infect at a 50% reduced rate compared with their symptomatic counterparts based on estimates from Nishiura and colleagues.
Public complicity is particularly crucial for older individuals (>60 years), individuals who are immunocompromised, and people with comorbidities who are at high risk of severe complications.
2020-03-24 Simcock et al COVID-19: Global Radiation Oncology’s Targeted Response for Pandemic Preparedness
Clinical and Translational Radiation Oncology
IV. Prevalence Study

During the weekend over 121 individuals from 17 countries and 6 continents contributed to the online discussion.
If the patient is young and healthy with a 5% risk of infection and 1% risk of death, then there is 0.05% mortality from COVID-19.
2020-03-25 Gupta et al Contentious Issues and Evolving Concepts in the Clinical Presentation and Management of Patients with COVID-19 Infectionwith Reference to Use of Therapeutic and Other Drugs used in Co-morbid Diseases (Hypertension, Diabetes etc)
Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome: Clinical Research & Reviews
II. Randomized Controlled Trial

In this study of 36 patients, 20 patients were treated with hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), out of which 6 also received azithromycin, and 16 patients served as controls.
Patients with underlying cardiovascular disease are among the highest risk individuals for severe COVID-19 disease and death 36 .
2020-03-27 Bignami et al A demographic adjustment to improve measurement of COVID-19 severity at the developing stage of the pandemic
medrxiv
IV. Other The severity of COVID-19 measures the risk of dying among infected individuals.
2020-03-27 Alqahtani et al Prevalence, Severity and Mortality associated with COPD and Smoking in patients with COVID-19: A Rapid Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
medrxiv
I. Systematic Review

A total of 15 studies met the inclusion criteria, which included a total of 2473 confirmed COVID-19 patients.
Our main outcomes show that the prevalence of COPD in COVID-19 patients was low, but that the risk of severity (63%) and mortality (60%) were high, which indicates COPD patients with confirmed COVID-19 are at a greater risk of severe complications and death.

COPD patients were at a higher risk of more severe disease (risk of severity = 63%, (22/35) compared to patients without COPD 33.4% (409/1224) [calculated RR, 1.88 (95% CI, 1.4-2.4)].
2020-03-27 Sterpetti et al Lessons Learned During the COVID-19 Virus Pandemic
Journal of the American College of Surgeons
IV. Other In patients hospitalized for severe symptoms, the case fatality rate is around 15%.

Elderly patients with severe co morbidities are at higher risk for mortality.
2020-03-27 Sun et al Acute gastrointestinal injury in critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in Wuhan, China
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

Results: From February 10 to March 10 2020, 83 critically ill patients of 1314 patients with COVID-19 were enrolled.
The AGI incidence was 86.7%, and hospital mortality was 48.2% in critically ill patients.
2020-03-27 Pinto et al ACE2 Expression is Increased in the Lungs of Patients with Comorbidities Associated with Severe COVID-19
medrxiv
IV. Other This identification of a common molecular mechanism of increased COVID-19 severity in patients with diverse comorbidities could direct the development of interventions to reduce the infection risk and disease severity in this population.
2020-03-27 Lou et al Serology characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 infection since the exposure and post symptoms onset
medrxiv
IV. Other There was no significant difference on age, viral load in the early stage of illness and the risk of critical status between the groups.
2020-03-28 Hagmann et al COVID-19 in children: More than meets the eye
Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease
IV. Prevalence Study

In the hitherto largest pediatric COVID-19 study that analyzed 2143 children with laboratory-3 confirmed or suspected cases most pediatric patients (94.1%) were diagnosed as asymptomatic, or with mild or moderate disease .
Thus, clinicians caring for children should be wary of subgroups of children who can be at an increased risk for more significant illness, as particularly younger age, underlying pulmonary pathology, and many immunocompromising conditions have also been associated with more severe outcomes with other coronavirus infections in children .
2020-03-29 Woolley et al Dilemma of Organ Donation in Transplantation and The COVID-19 Pandemic
The Journal of Heart and Lung Transplantation
III-2. Retrospective Cohort

One report of two cases of COVID-19 in heart transplant recipients in China suggested that the disease was manifest in a manner similar to that expected in the general population and did not progress into the hyperinflammation stage of the disease with recovery in both cases.
1 Stages of severity for this illness have been described with death preferentially afflicting the elderly with underlying cardiovascular risk markers or disease.
2020-03-30 Ross et al Maximizing the Calm Before the Storm: Tiered Surgical Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Journal of the American College of Surgeons
III-2. Cross Sectional Control

Utilizing these methods, in the first week of implementation, out of 21 scheduled ACS clinic patients, we have already identified 19 patients able to be managed by virtual or telephone visits (91% reduction in clinic visit exposure).
Patients at older age and with medical comorbidities are at the most risk of requiring hospitalization, ICU care, and at risk for death.
2020-03-30 Khera et al An Evaluation of the Vulnerable Physician Workforce in the United States During the Coronavirus Disease-19 Pandemic
medrxiv
IV. Other 2 Physicians are at an elevated risk of acquiring the disease through exposure to patients who may be symptomatic with the disease or its asymptomatic carriers across the spectrum of clinical specialties.
2020-03-30 Sarkar et al A Machine Learning Model Reveals Older Age and Delayed Hospitalization as Predictors of Mortality in Patients with COVID-19
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

Missing values were removed for all the variables to obtain a dataset of 433 individuals.
We show that older age and delayed hospitalisation of symptomatic patients are the two major risk factors for mortality in COVID-19 patients.
2020-03-30 Gupta et al Trend Analysis and Forecasting of COVID-19 outbreak in India
medrxiv
IV. Computer Model The risk of severe complications from COVID-19 is higher for certain vulnerable populations, particularly people who are elderly, frail, or have multiple chronic conditions.
2020-03-31 Liu et al Pay attention to situation of SARS-CoV-2 and TCM advantages in treatment of novel coronavirus infection
Chinese Herbal Medicines
IV. Prevalence Study

In clinical study, two mild and two severe COVID-19 pneumonia patients were given combined Chinese and Western medicine treatment, three of whom gained significant improvement in pneumonia associated symptoms.
From the above data, it can be seen that the elderly infected persons are the main risk groups.
2020-07-31 Lippi et al Thrombocytopenia is associated with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections: A meta-analysis
Clinica Chimica Acta
I. Systematic Review

The clinical severity was defined as the composite of ICU admission, use of mechanical ventilation or death in two studies , ICU admission in two studies , progression towards ARDS in one study , death in three studies , and need of mechanical ventilation in the remaining study .
As such, biomarkers are needed to identify severe disease among hospitalized patients.

7 Susceptibility of populations

7.0.0.1 Highlights

7.0.0.2 Articles

Date Authors Title LOE(?) & Sample Matches
2020 Yang et al Analysis on the epidemic factors for the Corona Virus Disease
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi
IV. Other All population have susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2.
2020 Sun et al Early epidemiological analysis of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak based on crowdsourced data: a population-level observational study
The Lancet Digital Health
IV. Prevalence Study

Findings We collected data for 507 patients with COVID-19 reported between Jan 13 and Jan 31, 2020, including 364 from mainland China and 143 from outside of China.
This pattern could indicate agerelated differences in susceptibility to infection, severe outcomes, or behaviour.
2020 Battegay et al 2019-novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate - a word of caution
Swiss Med Wkly
IV. Other Immunogenetics and socioeconomic factors however, may potentially contribute to differences in susceptibilities to the disease.
2020 Hu et al Thinking of treatment strategies for colorectal cancer patients in tumor hospitals under the background of coronavirus pneumonia
Zhonghua Wei Chang Wai Ke Za Zhi
IV. Other Its pathogen is 2019-nCoV, which has the characteristics of strong infectivity and general susceptibility.
2020 Zhao et al The treatment proposal for the patients with breast diseases in the central epidemic area of 2019 coronavirus disease
Zhonghua Wai Ke Za Zhi
IV. Other The characteristics including high contagiousness, herd susceptibility and clinical phenotype diversity, made a serious influence on people's daily life and rountine therapy for other diseases.
2020 Daszak et al A strategy to prevent future pandemics similar to the 2019-nCoV outbreak
Biosafety and Health
IV. Prevalence Study These efforts will help identify and characterize viral genetic sequence, identify high-risk human populations with antibodies and cell-mediated immunity responses to wildlife-origin CoVs , as well as the risk factors in human behaviors and living environment through interviews.
2020-02-02 Zhang et al Transmission and epidemiological characteristics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infected Pneumonia (COVID-19): preliminary evidence obtained in comparison with 2003-SARS
medrxiv
IV. Other In addition to the fragility of medical institutions in the face of the new coronavirus epidemic, the risk of infection complications among hospital populations is also greatly increased .
2020-02-10 Arabi et al Critical care management of adults with community-acquired severe respiratory viral infection
Intensive Care Med
II. Randomized Controlled Trial

The importance of timing of oseltamivir treatment has been demonstrated in an observational study of 1950 patients admitted to ICUs with influenza A(H1N1) pdm09, which showed a trend toward improved survival for those treated earliest .
However, high frequencies of emergence of variants with reduced susceptibility have been observed during monotherapy.
2020-02-11 Cai et al Bulk and single-cell transcriptomics identify tobacco-use disparity in lung gene expression of ACE2, the receptor of 2019-nCov
medrxiv
IV. Other 1, 2 We believe that the susceptibility to the novel 2019-nCov is also different among population groups.
2020-02-11 Chinazzi et al The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study The transmission and mobility model does not account, at this stage, for heterogeneities due to age differences in susceptibility and contact patterns.
2020-02-12 Zhu et al The immune vulnerability landscape of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2
biorxiv
IV. Prevalence Study 2) , which indicates that different susceptibility to this virus may exist between differential populations.

Genetic variations can modify the immunogenicity landscape of the virus, and impact its survival fitness.
2020-02-17 Neher et al Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

The dataset included a total of 52,158 patient samples with 190,257 diagnostic tests, of which 2,084 were positive for any of the coronaviruses (229E = 319; NL63 = 499; OC43 = 604; HKU1 = 355; OC43/HKU1 = 307).
Variation in transmission and migration rates can result in substantial variation in prevalence between regions.
2020-02-21 Cheng et al Scabies: Application of the Novel Identify-Isolate-Inform Tool for Detection and Management
West J Emerg Med
IV. Prevalence Study

36 Advising patients and parents of young patients to keep fingernails short and clean can assist with preventing secondary infections.
These populations are especially susceptible to secondary complications of infestation.
2020-02-24 Viceconte et al COVID-19 R0: Magic number or conundrum?
Infect Dis Rep
IV. Computer Model 11 Therefore, the models used to estimate the R0 cannot fully consider the large heterogeneity in space, transmissibility, and susceptibility of an infection.
2020-02-25 Jin et al Gender differences in patients with COVID-19: Focus on severity and mortality
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

In the public data set, the first 37 cases died of COVID-19 in Wuhan city and the 1019 survived patients with COVID-19 from six cities with a high prevalence of the disease were obtained from the Chinese Public Health Science Data Center.
While men and women have the same susceptibility to both SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, men may be more prone to have higher severity and mortality independent of age and susceptibility.

Therefore, Gender is a risk factor for higher severity and mortality in patients with both COVID-19 and SARS independent of age and susceptibility.
2020-02-27 Hilton et al Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices
medrxiv
IV. Other We demonstrated that taking age-specific susceptibility into account results in substantially different predictions of transmission intensity by country relative to a model without age-specific susceptibility; countries with older populations are at substantially higher risk than countries with younger populations.

The age-specific susceptibility z i can thus be estimated as
2020-03-05 Gilmour et al Progress towards Health for All: Time to End Discrimination and Marginalization
Int J Environ Res Public Health
IV. Prevalence Study Their results suggest that the social conditions of that period led to black Americans having a lower risk of exposure but higher fatality rates after infection, possibly due to high susceptibility to other bacterial diseases, such as pneumonia.
2020-03-05 Peters et al Understanding the emerging coronavirus: what it means for health security and infection prevention
Journal of Hospital Infection
IV. Prevalence Study

50 Super spreading individuals were found to have a major impact in the previous MERS, SARS, and Ebola pandemics.
Human factors include whether the population is immunologically naïve or not, how well the human immune system can respond to the virus, age structure of a population, population density, as well as mobility, and cultural behaviors.
2020-03-05 Barkauskas et al A Specialized Few Among Many: Identification of a Novel Lung Epithelial Stem Cell Population
Cell Stem Cell
IV. Other However, with time, we have developed a more nuanced understanding of these populations and the field now identifies subsets within the regional populations ( Figure 1 ).
2020-03-06 Kraemer et al The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China
medrxiv
IV. Computer Model Age and sex distributions are important in understanding risk of infection across populations.
2020-03-06 Riou et al Adjusted age-specific case fatality ratio during the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei, China, January and February 2020
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

The model estimates that a total of 82,300 individuals (95%CrI: 73,000-91,800) were infected in Hubei between 1 January and 11 February 2020.
We assumed that susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of acquisition per contact is identical for each age class.
2020-03-06 Lauro et al The timing of one-shot interventions for epidemic control
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study A typical plot of the prevalence level in each sub-populations is shown in figure 4 in the absence of intervention.
2020-03-08 Rao et al Exploring diseases/traits and blood proteins causally related to expression of ACE2, the putative receptor of 2019-nCov: A Mendelian Randomization analysis
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

recently carried out a nationwide analysis of 1,590 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and suggested that cancer patients might have a higher infection risk than those without 39 .
Our main purpose is to prioritize diseases, traits or proteins with potential causal links with ACE2 expression, and hence possibly increased susceptibility to 2019-nCov infection.
2020-03-10 O’Connell et al The impact of point-of-care testing for influenza A and B on patient flow and management in a medical assessment unit of a general hospital
BMC Res Notes
III-3. Time Series Analysis

RESULTS: The results of the correlation study with a cohort of 54 patients revealed the Abbott ID NOW POCT has 92% sensitivity for the detection of Influenza A, while specificity was 100% for both Influenza A and B.
The effects of variable individual prescriber preference for antibiotics, laboratory cultures and sensitivities and late patient presentation to hospital on statistical significance of antibiotic usage patterns and variance between cohorts should be noted.
2020-03-11 Cai et al Sex difference and smoking predisposition in patients with COVID-19
The Lancet Respiratory Medicine
IV. Other With more cases being examined from different ethnic and genetic backgrounds worldwide, ACE2 expression variation can be better analysed and compared to establish whether it contributes to susceptibility to COVID-19 across the different subgroups.
2020-03-16 Liu et al Prevalence and predictors of PTSS during COVID-19 Outbreak in China Hardest-hit Areas: Gender differences matter
Psychiatry Research
IV. Prevalence Study

A total of 285 participants were recruited in the study, among which 124(43.5%) were currently in Wuhan, and 188(66%) were previously in Wuhan.
As shown in step 2, gender (β = 0.192, p < 0.001) and population susceptibility (β = 0.153, p < 0.01) are positively associated with PCL5-5 scores.
2020-03-16 Teslya et al Impact of self-imposed prevention measures and short-term government intervention on mitigating and delaying a COVID-19 epidemic
medrxiv
IV. Computer Model The efficacy of handwashing is described by the reduction in susceptibility 152 (i.e., probability of transmission per single contact) of susceptible disease-aware individuals (S a ) which ranges from 153 0% (zero efficacy) to 100% (full efficacy).

In the extended model with disease awareness, the population is stratified not only by the disease status but also by mask-wearing and self-imposed social distancing that can lower their susceptibility, infectivity and/or contact rate.
2020-03-16 Liu et al Active or latent tuberculosis increases susceptibility to COVID-19 and disease severity
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

Among the 36 confirmed COVID-19 patients from Shenyang, Liaoning province, China, included in this study, the most common symptoms at presentation were cough (61.11%), dyspnea (33.33%), .
Active or latent tuberculosis increases susceptibility to COVID-19 and disease severity
2020-03-16 Neher et al Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
Swiss Medical Weekly
IV. Prevalence Study Variation in transmission and migration rates can result in substantial variation in prevalence between regions.
2020-03-17 Adhikari et al Epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, prevention and control of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during the early outbreak period: a scoping review
Infect Dis Poverty
III-2. Cross Sectional Control

In China, 11 791 cases were confirmed and 17 988 cases were suspected in 34 provinces as of 24:00, 31 January 2020 (Fig.
Susceptibility seems to be associated with age, biological sex, and other health conditions .
2020-03-18 Kandel et al Health security capacities in the context of COVID-19 outbreak: an analysis of International Health Regulations annual report data from 182 countries
The Lancet
IV. Prevalence Study 21 Several factors affect the emergence and spread of an infectious disease outbreak within countries and between regions, including the strength of IHR capacities at the national and subnational levels, adherence to infection prevention and control measures, climate-related pressures, and the density of populations.
2020-03-19 Tolksdorf et al Influenza-associated pneumonia as reference to assess seriousness of coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
Euro Surveill
IV. Prevalence Study

described clinical courses and outcomes of 52 critically ill patients in a hospital in Wuhan .
Transmissibility reflects the movement of the virus, which is influenced by the dynamics of the spread, the R 0 and the susceptibility of the exposed population.
2020-03-19 Lai et al Global epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): disease incidence, daily cumulative index, mortality, and their association with country healthcare resources and economic status
International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents
IV. Other In the other 47 countries, the incidence of COVID-19 cases was < 2 per 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 population.
2020-03-20 Aguilar et al Investigating the Impact of Asymptomatic Carriers on COVID-19 Transmission
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study As people gain awareness of the presence of an infectious disease in their communities, a portion will take measures in order to reduce their susceptibility.
2020-03-20 Sominsky et al One size does not fit all – Patterns of vulnerability and resilience in the COVID-19 pandemic and why heterogeneity of disease matters
Brain, Behavior, and Immunity
IV. Prevalence Study One size does not fit all – Patterns of vulnerability and resilience in the COVID-19 pandemic and why heterogeneity of disease matters
2020-03-20 Ahmadi et al Modeling and Forecasting Trend of COVID-19 Epidemic in Iran
medrxiv
IV. Computer Model The top priorities in Iran are now circular and comprehensive efforts to conduct epidemiological studies and identification of all aspects of the disease (source of disease, reservoir, pathways, infectivity, incubation period, incidence and prevalence, pathogenicity, immunogenicity, herd immunity, causes, epidemic and pandemic pattern, primary and secondary attack rates, response time, time needed for isolation and quarantine, treatment regimens, vaccines and other prevention methods, disease surveillance and statistical reporting) and evidence-based interventions and epidemic control.
2020-03-23 Coelho et al Assessing the potential impacts of COVID-19 in Brasil: Mobility, Morbidity and Impact to the Health System
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study Because of these inequalities, the COVID-19 epidemic should impact these populations differ-35 ently, if factors such as transmissibility, lethality and vulnerability are taken into account.
2020-03-23 Vu et al Financing Vaccines for Global Health Security
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study The number of vaccine regimens sold in response to an outbreak is a function of both the actual and perceived risk to populations.
2020-03-24 Davidson et al Characterisation of the transcriptome and proteome of SARS-CoV-2 using direct RNA sequencing and tandem mass spectrometry reveals evidence for a cell passage induced in-frame deletion in the spike glycoprotein that removes the furin-like cleavage site.
biorxiv
IV. Other Such variations may result in different levels of virulence and morbidity and mortality.
2020-03-27 Davies et al Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics
medrxiv
IV. Computer Model In hypothesis 3, the clinical case probability varied y i = y by age , but susceptibility did not .
2020-03-27 Liu et al Clinical features of COVID-19 in elderly patients: A comparison with young and middle-aged patients
Journal of Infection
IV. Prevalence Study

During the study period, a total of 56 patients were evaluated, 18 elderly patients (32.14%), and 38 young patients (67.86%).
Abstract Background Due to the general susceptibility of new coronaviruses, the clinical characteristics and outcomes of elderly and young patients may be different.
2020-03-27 Dudley et al Disparities in Age-Specific Morbidity and Mortality from SARS-CoV-2 in China and the Republic of Korea
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis The available epidemiological and observational data from the ROK suggests that reduced rates of compliance with social distancing and self-quarantine recommendations among different sectors of the population -especially the younger adult and juvenile age cohorts --may have a significant impact on the age-specific rates of morbidity and mortality within the population as a whole.
2020-03-27 Wynants et al Systematic review and critical appraisal of prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of COVID-19 infection
medrxiv
I. Systematic Review

Based on nine of the 15 studies that reported study dates, data were collected between 8 th December 2019 and 3 rd March 2020.
Data (IPD) from multiple countries and healthcare systems may facilitate better understanding of the generalizability and implementation prediction models across different settings and populations, and may greatly improve their applicability and robustness in routine care.
2020-03-30 Wang et al Genetic Profiles in Pharmacogenes Indicate Personalized Drug Therapy for COVID-19
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

As many as 16 clinical trials related to chloroquine, and two clinical trials for mild and common patients and severe patients will be completed on April 30, 2020 (ChiCTR2000029898, ChiCTR2000029899), each clinical trial includes a total of 100 participants.
However, genetic factors which can lead to different drug efficiency and toxicity among populations are still undisclosed in COVID-19 therapy.
2020-03-30 Buhat et al A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission between frontliners and the general public
medrxiv
IV. Computer Model The model cannot be immediately utilized to make predictions on the spread of COVID-19 but it provides us insights on the transmission of a disease between two populations with different characteristics in terms of factors affecting the spread of a disease, such as the basic reproduction number and susceptibility rate.
2020-03-30 Zhang et al What is required to prevent a second major outbreak of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 upon lifting the metropolitan-wide quarantine of Wuhan city, China
medrxiv
IV. Computer Model Population-dense areas are prone to virus transmission and sporadic outbreaks.

8 Public health mitigation measures that could be effective for control

8.0.0.1 Highlights

8.0.0.2 Articles

Date Authors Title LOE(?) & Sample Matches
2020 Task Force of Pulmonary Function et al Expert consensus on Pulmonary Function Testing during the epidemic of Corona Virus Disease 2019
Zhonghua jie he he hu xi za zhi = Zhonghua jiehe he huxi zazhi = Chinese journal of tuberculosis and respiratory diseases
IV. Other Effective prevention and control strategies must be compulsorily implemented to prevent nosocomial infection.
2020 Wang et al Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China
Cell Discovery
IV. Computer Model After implementation of strict prevention and control measures in China, new estimation is needed.
2020 Proposed prevention and control of 2019 novel coronavirus infection in neonates
Chinese Journal of Perinatal Medicine
IV. Other Following an outbreak of pneumonia caused by 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) which has spread in China, the National Health Commission of China issued public health policies and implemented interventions for control and prevention of the epidemic.
2020-02-03 Čivljak et al The third coronavirus epidemic in the third millennium: what’s next?
Croat Med J
IV. Prevalence Study

However, the largest study to date on more than 72 000 patients from China has shown that health care workers make up 3.8% of the patients.
The spread of the epidemic can only be contained and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in hospitals by strict compliance with infection prevention and control measures (contact, droplet, and airborne precautions) .
2020-02-18 Danchin et al A new transmission route for the propagation of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus
medrxiv
IV. Computer Model Corresponding prevention measures that take into account both routes should be implemented to the benefit of epidemic control.
2020-02-23 Wang et al Phase adjusted estimation of the number of 2019 novel coronavirus cases in Wuhan, China
medrxiv
IV. Computer Model After implementation of strict prevention and control measures in China, new estimation is needed.
2020-02-27 Cui et al Clinical features and sexual transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 infected female patients: a descriptive study in Wuhan, China
medrxiv
IV. Other Therefore, based on the transmission route of SARS-CoV, current preventive measures, including maintaining good personal and environmental health, and implementing strict contact and droplet prevention measures in the community, can effectively prevent the spread of SARS-CoV 6 .
2020-02-27 Peng et al Outbreak of a new coronavirus: what anaesthetists should know
British Journal of Anaesthesia
IV. Prevalence Study

The median age of infected individuals is between 49 and 56 yr. 1 13 Children are rarely diagnosed with 2019-nCoV, a phenomenon that has not yet been explained.
Public health programmes coordinate rapid case finding, tracing of contacts of cases, and isolation measures to mitigate spread, and guide decision-making on broad public health measures, such as social distancing when required.
2020-02-29 Tang et al Stochastic discrete epidemic modeling of COVID-19 transmission in the Province of Shaanxi incorporating public health intervention and case importation
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis

Given the daily number of newly confirmed imported cases 1 , … , on m consecutive days 1 , … , and the probability = ( − ≤ < − + 1) that an imported case entered Shaanxi province on day j and was confirmed on day i.
From the data analysis, it seems that the stringent public health interventions adopted by the Chinese authorities are effective in controlling the infection.
2020-03-03 Yang et al The deadly coronaviruses: The 2003 SARS pandemic and the 2020 novel coronavirus epidemic in China
Journal of Autoimmunity
IV. Prevalence Study

In Wang's study , of the 36 patients in the ICU, four patients received high-flow oxygen therapy, 15 patients received non-invasive ventilation, and 17 patients received invasive ventilation (four patients switched to ECMO).
The NHC announced that preventive and control measures of category A infectious diseases would be implemented to effectively fight SARS-CoV-2 and has also introduced public education campaigns.
2020-03-05 Wilder-Smith et al Can we contain the COVID-19 outbreak with the same measures as for SARS?
The Lancet Infectious Diseases
IV. Prevalence Study

On Feb 18, 2020, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention published their data of the first 72 314 patients including 44 672 patients with confirmed COVID19.
Because of the extent of community spread, traditional public health measures might not be able to halt all human-to-human transmission, and we need to consider moving from containment to mitigation.

In the absence of vaccines and specific treatment, the only available public health tools to control persontoperson transmittable diseases are isolation and quarantine, social distancing, and community containment measures.

The stringent control measures included school closures and closures of all universities and public places, as well as the cancellation of the public holiday in May.
2020-03-06 Qiu et al A nationwide survey of psychological distress among Chinese people in the COVID-19 epidemic: implications and policy recommendations
Gen Psychiatr
IV. Prevalence Study This decrease can partly be attributed to the effective prevention and control measures taken by the Chinese Government, including the nationwide quarantine, medical support and resources from all over the country, effective measures (such as public education, strengthening individual protection, medical isolation, controlling of population mobility, reducing gatherings) to stop the spread of the virus.
2020-03-06 Wu et al Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study
The Lancet
IV. Computer Model Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally.
2020-03-08 Zhao et al A mathematical model for estimating the age-specific transmissibility of a novel coronavirus
medrxiv
IV. Computer Model The age-specific 246 control and prevention interventions are needed.
2020-03-12 Wang et al Epidemiological characteristics and transmission model of Corona Virus Disease 2019 in China
Journal of Infection
IV. Other Effective control measures should still be implemented to reduce the transmission in future.
2020-03-12 qiu et al Revealing the influence of national public health policies for the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Wuhan, China through status dynamic modeling
medrxiv
IV. Other Moreover, this model could simulate the influence of different public health policies such as 1) lockdown of the city and 2) construction of temporary hospitals, which could help design the appropriate public health policies for epidemic control.
2020-03-13 Liu et al Modeling the situation of COVID-19 and effects of different containment strategies in China with dynamic differential equations and parameters estimation
medrxiv
IV. Other These results indicated that quarantine measures (or with vaccination that is not yet available) are the most effective containment strategy to control the epidemic.
2020-03-13 Kretzschmar et al Effectiveness of isolation and contact tracing for containment and slowing down a COVID-19 epidemic: a modelling study
medrxiv
IV. Other Other interventions measures are then needed for containment of the outbreak.
2020-03-13 Dosa et al Long-Term Care Facilities and the Coronavirus Epidemic: Practical Guidelines for a Population at Highest Risk
Journal of the American Medical Directors Association
IV. Other Absent vaccination and antiviral prophylaxis, and stringent and proactive infection prevention and control measures remain the best way to reduce the risk of staff and residents becoming ill (Table 1 ).
2020-03-15 Zheng et al SARS-CoV-2: an Emerging Coronavirus that Causes a Global Threat
Int J Biol Sci
IV. Other Effective preventive measures must be implemented to control it from global spreading.
2020-03-15 Zhong et al Knowledge, attitudes, and practices towards COVID-19 among Chinese residents during the rapid rise period of the COVID-19 outbreak: a quick online cross-sectional survey
Int J Biol Sci
III-2. Cross Sectional Control

A total of 6919 participants completed the survey questionnaire.
These strict preventive practices could be primarily attributed to the very strict prevention and control measures implemented by local governments such as banning public gatherings.
2020-03-17 Lin et al Epidemiological Trends of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China
medrxiv
IV. Other Many other provinces responded to the public health incidents by adopting quarantine measures and community-level monitoring to control the epidemic spread.
2020-03-17 Bedford et al COVID-19: towards controlling of a pandemic
The Lancet
IV. Other Second, all countries should consider a combination of response measures: case and contact finding; containment or other measures that aim to delay the onset of patient surges where feasible; and measures such as public awareness, promotion of personal protective hygiene, preparation of health systems for a surge of severely ill patients, stronger infection prevention and control in health facilities, nursing homes, and long-term care facilities, and postponement or cancellation of largescale public gatherings.
2020-03-18 Choe et al Are We Ready for Coronavirus Disease 2019 Arriving at Schools?
J Korean Med Sci
IV. Other 4 Nonpharmaceutical interventions provide time for mitigation in the case of pandemic influenza.
2020-03-18 Kandel et al Health security capacities in the context of COVID-19 outbreak: an analysis of International Health Regulations annual report data from 182 countries
The Lancet
IV. Prevalence Study Capacity for infection prevention and control is needed for effective case management and infection control.
2020-03-23 Bariotakis et al Climatic influences on the worldwide spread of SARS-CoV-2
medrxiv
IV. Other Given the lack of both specific effective drugs and an efficient preventive vaccine Health Authorities have focused on public health management measures for the restriction of the viral spread.
2020-03-23 Nasab et al Bibliometric Analysis of Global Scientific Research on SARSCoV-2 (COVID-19)
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study 1101 Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally.
2020-03-23 Koo et al Interventions to mitigate early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore: a modelling study
The Lancet Infectious Diseases
IV. Prevalence Study

20 Asymptomatic individuals were able to infect at a 50% reduced rate compared with their symptomatic counterparts based on estimates from Nishiura and colleagues.
At higher asymptomatic proportions, intervention effectiveness might be substantially reduced requiring the need for effective case management and treatments, and preventive measures such as vaccines.
2020-03-24 Maslov et al Window of Opportunity for Mitigation to Prevent Overflow of ICU capacity in Chicago by COVID-19
medrxiv
IV. Computer Model Thus to be safe, the mitigation measures should be implemented as soon as possible, while they will be effective; at the same time, for humanitarian reasons, the societal implications of lockdown require appropriate arrangements to be made for the city's population, as has already done for the mitigation efforts to date.
2020-03-24 Kissler et al Social distancing strategies for curbing the COVID-19 epidemic
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study Intermittent distancing measures can maintain control of the epidemic, but without other interventions, these measures may be necessary into 2022.
2020-03-25 Pike et al An international comparison of the second derivative of COVID-19 deaths after implementation of social distancing measures
medrxiv
III-3. Time Series Analysis These results suggest there may be a threshold of effective public health intervention.
2020-03-25 Prem et al The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study
The Lancet Public Health
IV. Prevalence Study

Each simulation started with 200 or 2000 infectious individuals I 0 , 15 with the rest of the population being in the susceptible state.
Our simulations showed that control measures aimed at reducing social mixing in the population can be effective in reducing the magnitude and delaying the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak.
2020-03-27 Foddai et al Surveillance to improve evidence for community control decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic – Opening the animal epidemic toolbox for public health
One Health
IV. Prevalence Study Countries are implementing different community control measures.
2020-03-27 Liu et al Mental health considerations for children quarantined because of COVID-19
The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health
IV. Other To control the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the Chinese Government has implemented strict domestic quarantine policies.
2020-03-28 Zhai et al The epidemiology, diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19
International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents
III-2. Matched Case Control

Another study later using the travel history and symptom onset of 88 confirmed cases had a similar mean incubation period, which was 6.4 days (95% CI: 5.6-7.7) .
Classical public health measures, including isolation, quarantine, social distancing and community containment can be used to curb the pandemic of this respiratory disease .
2020-03-30 Lin et al Which Measures are Effective in Containing COVID-19? Empirical Research Based on Prevention and Control Cases in China
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study The effective control of the epidemic depends not only on the selection of prevention and control measures of the authority but also on the performance of the public.

Rothstein compared the effectiveness of public health policies to intervene with infectious diseases, among which quarantine is one of the most aggressive and controversial measures that public health officials can take when trying to control an outbreak.
2020-03-30 Cheng et al China's fight against COVID-19: What we have done and what we should do next?
medrxiv
IV. Other In other provinces, the focus was on preventing importations, curbing the spread of the disease and implementing joint prevention and control measures.

In other provinces, the focus is on the prevention of importation, containment of disease transmission and implementation of joint prevention and control measures.
2020-03-30 Jenny et al Dynamic Modeling to Identify Mitigation Strategies for Covid-19 Pandemic
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study The first mitigation strategy tested with our model is social distancing.

As the number of infected people increases in a community, public health policies move away from containment of the outbreak to mitigation strategies such as social distancing and isolation, with considerable detrimental effects on public life and the economy.
2020-03-30 James et al Suppression and Mitigation Strategies for Control of COVID-19 in New Zealand
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study This could include learning which mitigation strategies are most successful, and how to ensure timing of control interventions is robust to uncertainty.

Control aims can be broadly categorised as either suppression or mitigation.
2020-03-30 Caspi et al Climate effect on COVID-19 spread rate: an online surveillance tool
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

Countries with less than 50 diagnosed patients as well as countries not categorized as local transmission according to the WHO situation report as of March 9 were excluded in order to minimize confounding of imported disease transmission.
Analyzing the interaction between disease spread rate and climate may allow implementation of differential and precise mitigation measures for disease spread prevention, to tune healthcare routine ambulatory services and preparation strategies and to minimize the unnecessary dreadful impact of excessive quarantine strategies on psychosocial health and economies.
2020-03-30 Buhat et al A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission between frontliners and the general public
medrxiv
IV. Computer Model Higher values for may mean that preventive measures (e.g.
2020-03-31 Scarabel et al Canada needs to rapidly escalate public health interventions for its COVID-19 mitigation strategies
Infectious Disease Modelling
IV. Other Canada needs to rapidly escalate public health interventions for its COVID-19 mitigation strategies
2020-03-31 Acuna-Zegarra et al The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak: a review of plausible scenarios of containment and mitigation for Mexico
medrxiv
IV. Prevalence Study

Observe that the peak incidence is approximately 4 935 individuals and it occurs 2 days after isolation began (January 26th, ) Figure 14(b) ).
Note that the results in this section do not include any control, mitigation of containment strategy.

The policies of containment and mitigation have to be applied quickly, with no hesitation.
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Levels of Evidence in Epidemiology
LevelRating Criteria
IEvidence obtained from a systematic review or meta-analysis of all relevant randomized, controlled trials
IIEvidence obtained from at least one properly designed randomized, controlled trial
III-1Evidence obtained from well-designed pseudorandomized controlled trials (without proper randomization)
III-2Evidence obtained from comparative studies with concurrent controls and allocation not randomized (cohort studies), case-control studies, or interrupted time series with a control group
III-3Evidence obtained from comparative studies with historical control, 2 or more single-arm studies, or interrupted time series without a parallel control group
IVEvidence obtained from descriptive case series, either before testing or before and after testing